No known near-Earth objects pose an impact risk in 2026 according to ongoing NASA and CNEOS monitoring, keeping trader-implied odds for a 5kt-or-greater bolide event at roughly one-third. Historical detection data show airbursts releasing 1–600 kilotons occur several times per decade on average, with multiple events exceeding 5kt recorded since 2000, yet none cluster predictably by calendar year. Recent Q1 2026 fireball reports indicate elevated activity but remain well below thresholds that would shift consensus. Resolution hinges on official energy estimates from infrasound or satellite networks, with no model runs or orbital updates currently elevating near-term probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$302,490 거래량
$302,490 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$302,490 거래량
$302,490 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects pose an impact risk in 2026 according to ongoing NASA and CNEOS monitoring, keeping trader-implied odds for a 5kt-or-greater bolide event at roughly one-third. Historical detection data show airbursts releasing 1–600 kilotons occur several times per decade on average, with multiple events exceeding 5kt recorded since 2000, yet none cluster predictably by calendar year. Recent Q1 2026 fireball reports indicate elevated activity but remain well below thresholds that would shift consensus. Resolution hinges on official energy estimates from infrasound or satellite networks, with no model runs or orbital updates currently elevating near-term probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$302,490종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects pose an impact risk in 2026 according to ongoing NASA and CNEOS monitoring, keeping trader-implied odds for a 5kt-or-greater bolide event at roughly one-third. Historical detection data show airbursts releasing 1–600 kilotons occur several times per decade on average, with multiple events exceeding 5kt recorded since 2000, yet none cluster predictably by calendar year. Recent Q1 2026 fireball reports indicate elevated activity but remain well below thresholds that would shift consensus. Resolution hinges on official energy estimates from infrasound or satellite networks, with no model runs or orbital updates currently elevating near-term probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$302,490종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects pose an impact risk in 2026 according to ongoing NASA and CNEOS monitoring, keeping trader-implied odds for a 5kt-or-greater bolide event at roughly one-third. Historical detection data show airbursts releasing 1–600 kilotons occur several times per decade on average, with multiple events exceeding 5kt recorded since 2000, yet none cluster predictably by calendar year. Recent Q1 2026 fireball reports indicate elevated activity but remain well below thresholds that would shift consensus. Resolution hinges on official energy estimates from infrasound or satellite networks, with no model runs or orbital updates currently elevating near-term probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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