No known bolides reaching 5 kilotons TNT equivalent have been recorded in the first five months of 2026, supporting the 64% market-implied odds against such an event by year-end. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEOCC risk lists show no cataloged objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy this year, consistent with Sentry monitoring data. Small atmospheric entries occur frequently, yet objects producing 5 kt airbursts remain statistically infrequent based on infrasound and satellite records, occurring on multi-year rather than annual timescales. With half the year remaining and no upward revision in detected fireball energies, trader consensus aligns with the low near-term probability derived from current orbital surveys and historical impact frequencies.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$301,975 거래량
$301,975 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$301,975 거래량
$301,975 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known bolides reaching 5 kilotons TNT equivalent have been recorded in the first five months of 2026, supporting the 64% market-implied odds against such an event by year-end. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEOCC risk lists show no cataloged objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy this year, consistent with Sentry monitoring data. Small atmospheric entries occur frequently, yet objects producing 5 kt airbursts remain statistically infrequent based on infrasound and satellite records, occurring on multi-year rather than annual timescales. With half the year remaining and no upward revision in detected fireball energies, trader consensus aligns with the low near-term probability derived from current orbital surveys and historical impact frequencies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$301,975종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known bolides reaching 5 kilotons TNT equivalent have been recorded in the first five months of 2026, supporting the 64% market-implied odds against such an event by year-end. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEOCC risk lists show no cataloged objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy this year, consistent with Sentry monitoring data. Small atmospheric entries occur frequently, yet objects producing 5 kt airbursts remain statistically infrequent based on infrasound and satellite records, occurring on multi-year rather than annual timescales. With half the year remaining and no upward revision in detected fireball energies, trader consensus aligns with the low near-term probability derived from current orbital surveys and historical impact frequencies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$301,975종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known bolides reaching 5 kilotons TNT equivalent have been recorded in the first five months of 2026, supporting the 64% market-implied odds against such an event by year-end. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEOCC risk lists show no cataloged objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy this year, consistent with Sentry monitoring data. Small atmospheric entries occur frequently, yet objects producing 5 kt airbursts remain statistically infrequent based on infrasound and satellite records, occurring on multi-year rather than annual timescales. With half the year remaining and no upward revision in detected fireball energies, trader consensus aligns with the low near-term probability derived from current orbital surveys and historical impact frequencies.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문