No at 67.5% aligns with the baseline statistical rate of roughly one 5-kiloton or larger bolide event every one to two years, drawn from historical airburst records, combined with NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies confirming no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories for 2026. Recent close approaches, including the newly tracked 2026 JH2 and other May objects, have all been verified as safe lunar-distance or greater flybys with no impact risk. A statistically notable surge in smaller fireballs during Q1 2026 produced no events approaching the 5 kt energy threshold, while ongoing optical and radar monitoring through year-end continues to reduce remaining uncertainty around undetected objects.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$305,191 거래량
$305,191 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$305,191 거래량
$305,191 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 67.5% aligns with the baseline statistical rate of roughly one 5-kiloton or larger bolide event every one to two years, drawn from historical airburst records, combined with NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies confirming no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories for 2026. Recent close approaches, including the newly tracked 2026 JH2 and other May objects, have all been verified as safe lunar-distance or greater flybys with no impact risk. A statistically notable surge in smaller fireballs during Q1 2026 produced no events approaching the 5 kt energy threshold, while ongoing optical and radar monitoring through year-end continues to reduce remaining uncertainty around undetected objects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$305,191종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 67.5% aligns with the baseline statistical rate of roughly one 5-kiloton or larger bolide event every one to two years, drawn from historical airburst records, combined with NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies confirming no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories for 2026. Recent close approaches, including the newly tracked 2026 JH2 and other May objects, have all been verified as safe lunar-distance or greater flybys with no impact risk. A statistically notable surge in smaller fireballs during Q1 2026 produced no events approaching the 5 kt energy threshold, while ongoing optical and radar monitoring through year-end continues to reduce remaining uncertainty around undetected objects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$305,191종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 67.5% aligns with the baseline statistical rate of roughly one 5-kiloton or larger bolide event every one to two years, drawn from historical airburst records, combined with NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies confirming no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories for 2026. Recent close approaches, including the newly tracked 2026 JH2 and other May objects, have all been verified as safe lunar-distance or greater flybys with no impact risk. A statistically notable surge in smaller fireballs during Q1 2026 produced no events approaching the 5 kt energy threshold, while ongoing optical and radar monitoring through year-end continues to reduce remaining uncertainty around undetected objects.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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