The absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026 underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no 5kt-or-greater impact. Ongoing NASA and ESA surveys continue to show no objects exceeding the 1% impact threshold that would trigger alerts, while historical frequency data indicate such events occur roughly once per several hundred to a thousand years for objects in the relevant size range. Early 2026 saw a statistically elevated rate of bright fireballs detected by the American Meteor Society, yet these represent atmospheric entries rather than ground-impacting bolides releasing 5kt TNT-equivalent energy. Refined orbital tracking of recent close approaches has further reduced residual risk, leaving traders focused on the narrow remaining window for undetected small objects and the next scheduled survey updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$302,490 거래량
$302,490 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$302,490 거래량
$302,490 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026 underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no 5kt-or-greater impact. Ongoing NASA and ESA surveys continue to show no objects exceeding the 1% impact threshold that would trigger alerts, while historical frequency data indicate such events occur roughly once per several hundred to a thousand years for objects in the relevant size range. Early 2026 saw a statistically elevated rate of bright fireballs detected by the American Meteor Society, yet these represent atmospheric entries rather than ground-impacting bolides releasing 5kt TNT-equivalent energy. Refined orbital tracking of recent close approaches has further reduced residual risk, leaving traders focused on the narrow remaining window for undetected small objects and the next scheduled survey updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
거래량
$302,490종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026 underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no 5kt-or-greater impact. Ongoing NASA and ESA surveys continue to show no objects exceeding the 1% impact threshold that would trigger alerts, while historical frequency data indicate such events occur roughly once per several hundred to a thousand years for objects in the relevant size range. Early 2026 saw a statistically elevated rate of bright fireballs detected by the American Meteor Society, yet these represent atmospheric entries rather than ground-impacting bolides releasing 5kt TNT-equivalent energy. Refined orbital tracking of recent close approaches has further reduced residual risk, leaving traders focused on the narrow remaining window for undetected small objects and the next scheduled survey updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
거래량
$302,490종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026 underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no 5kt-or-greater impact. Ongoing NASA and ESA surveys continue to show no objects exceeding the 1% impact threshold that would trigger alerts, while historical frequency data indicate such events occur roughly once per several hundred to a thousand years for objects in the relevant size range. Early 2026 saw a statistically elevated rate of bright fireballs detected by the American Meteor Society, yet these represent atmospheric entries rather than ground-impacting bolides releasing 5kt TNT-equivalent energy. Refined orbital tracking of recent close approaches has further reduced residual risk, leaving traders focused on the narrow remaining window for undetected small objects and the next scheduled survey updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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