Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the market's stringent resolution criteria—Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US, 10-kiloton-plus meteor impact, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or higher eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—none of which have materialized through April despite ongoing USGS seismic monitoring. The strongest 2026 quake to date remains the Mw 7.5 event near Tonga on March 24, well below the threshold, with no VEI 6 activity reported by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and no qualifying bolides tracked by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Recent Colorado State University forecasts predict 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity at about 75% of the 1991–2020 average, curbing Cat 5 potential ahead of the June 1 season start, though model updates from NOAA's National Hurricane Center could shift odds as conditions evolve.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$204,720 거래량
$204,720 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$204,720 거래량
$204,720 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the market's stringent resolution criteria—Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US, 10-kiloton-plus meteor impact, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or higher eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—none of which have materialized through April despite ongoing USGS seismic monitoring. The strongest 2026 quake to date remains the Mw 7.5 event near Tonga on March 24, well below the threshold, with no VEI 6 activity reported by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and no qualifying bolides tracked by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Recent Colorado State University forecasts predict 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity at about 75% of the 1991–2020 average, curbing Cat 5 potential ahead of the June 1 season start, though model updates from NOAA's National Hurricane Center could shift odds as conditions evolve.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$204,720종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the market's stringent resolution criteria—Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US, 10-kiloton-plus meteor impact, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or higher eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—none of which have materialized through April despite ongoing USGS seismic monitoring. The strongest 2026 quake to date remains the Mw 7.5 event near Tonga on March 24, well below the threshold, with no VEI 6 activity reported by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and no qualifying bolides tracked by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Recent Colorado State University forecasts predict 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity at about 75% of the 1991–2020 average, curbing Cat 5 potential ahead of the June 1 season start, though model updates from NOAA's National Hurricane Center could shift odds as conditions evolve.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
거래량
$204,720종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the market's stringent resolution criteria—Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US, 10-kiloton-plus meteor impact, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or higher eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—none of which have materialized through April despite ongoing USGS seismic monitoring. The strongest 2026 quake to date remains the Mw 7.5 event near Tonga on March 24, well below the threshold, with no VEI 6 activity reported by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and no qualifying bolides tracked by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. Recent Colorado State University forecasts predict 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity at about 75% of the 1991–2020 average, curbing Cat 5 potential ahead of the June 1 season start, though model updates from NOAA's National Hurricane Center could shift odds as conditions evolve.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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