Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking second-hottest on record at 53.5% implied probability, with 36.5% for first, driven by NOAA's March report confirming the fourth-warmest January–March globally (+1.19°C above 20th-century average) and March tying 2024 for second-warmest (+1.31°C anomaly). Copernicus data echoes this, noting fourth-warmest March surface air temperatures (13.94°C) and near-record sea surface temperatures amid persistent ocean heat uptake. NOAA's annual outlook projects 98.4% chance of top-five ranking and >99.9% top ten, while traders price higher top-two odds anticipating NOAA CPC's 61% El Niño emergence by mid-2026 boosting late-year warmth—though ENSO-neutral risks through June introduce uncertainty. Upcoming April bulletins and ENSO updates will refine trajectories against baselines from record 2024 and near-record 2025.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2 54%
1 37%
4 4.4%
3 3.8%
$2,640,496 거래량
$2,640,496 거래량
2026.12.31
1
37%
2
54%
3
4%
4
4%
5
<1%
6위 이하
3%
2 54%
1 37%
4 4.4%
3 3.8%
$2,640,496 거래량
$2,640,496 거래량
2026.12.31
1
$418,234 거래량
37%
2
$293,471 거래량
54%
3
$390,073 거래량
4%
4
$387,972 거래량
4%
5
$702,396 거래량
<1%
6위 이하
$448,351 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking second-hottest on record at 53.5% implied probability, with 36.5% for first, driven by NOAA's March report confirming the fourth-warmest January–March globally (+1.19°C above 20th-century average) and March tying 2024 for second-warmest (+1.31°C anomaly). Copernicus data echoes this, noting fourth-warmest March surface air temperatures (13.94°C) and near-record sea surface temperatures amid persistent ocean heat uptake. NOAA's annual outlook projects 98.4% chance of top-five ranking and >99.9% top ten, while traders price higher top-two odds anticipating NOAA CPC's 61% El Niño emergence by mid-2026 boosting late-year warmth—though ENSO-neutral risks through June introduce uncertainty. Upcoming April bulletins and ENSO updates will refine trajectories against baselines from record 2024 and near-record 2025.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$2,640,496종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking second-hottest on record at 53.5% implied probability, with 36.5% for first, driven by NOAA's March report confirming the fourth-warmest January–March globally (+1.19°C above 20th-century average) and March tying 2024 for second-warmest (+1.31°C anomaly). Copernicus data echoes this, noting fourth-warmest March surface air temperatures (13.94°C) and near-record sea surface temperatures amid persistent ocean heat uptake. NOAA's annual outlook projects 98.4% chance of top-five ranking and >99.9% top ten, while traders price higher top-two odds anticipating NOAA CPC's 61% El Niño emergence by mid-2026 boosting late-year warmth—though ENSO-neutral risks through June introduce uncertainty. Upcoming April bulletins and ENSO updates will refine trajectories against baselines from record 2024 and near-record 2025.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$2,640,496종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking second-hottest on record at 53.5% implied probability, with 36.5% for first, driven by NOAA's March report confirming the fourth-warmest January–March globally (+1.19°C above 20th-century average) and March tying 2024 for second-warmest (+1.31°C anomaly). Copernicus data echoes this, noting fourth-warmest March surface air temperatures (13.94°C) and near-record sea surface temperatures amid persistent ocean heat uptake. NOAA's annual outlook projects 98.4% chance of top-five ranking and >99.9% top ten, while traders price higher top-two odds anticipating NOAA CPC's 61% El Niño emergence by mid-2026 boosting late-year warmth—though ENSO-neutral risks through June introduce uncertainty. Upcoming April bulletins and ENSO updates will refine trajectories against baselines from record 2024 and near-record 2025.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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