Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 88.5% probability of no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the rarity of such events—historically occurring several times per century globally, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data—and the absence of precursors at monitored volcanoes. USGS Volcano Hazards Program updates through mid-April 2026 report 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, all low-intensity (VEI ≤4), with no signs of massive magma accumulation, rapid caldera inflation, or high seismicity signaling a Plinian-scale event like Mount Pinatubo's 1991 VEI 6 blast. Axial Seamount's anticipated mid-2026 submarine eruption is expected to be effusive and low-VEI. Weekly GVP bulletins and USGS alerts will track any escalation, but current seismic, deformation, and gas data show baseline activity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$62,379 거래량
$62,379 거래량
2027.03.31
예
$62,379 거래량
$62,379 거래량
2027.03.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 88.5% probability of no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the rarity of such events—historically occurring several times per century globally, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data—and the absence of precursors at monitored volcanoes. USGS Volcano Hazards Program updates through mid-April 2026 report 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, all low-intensity (VEI ≤4), with no signs of massive magma accumulation, rapid caldera inflation, or high seismicity signaling a Plinian-scale event like Mount Pinatubo's 1991 VEI 6 blast. Axial Seamount's anticipated mid-2026 submarine eruption is expected to be effusive and low-VEI. Weekly GVP bulletins and USGS alerts will track any escalation, but current seismic, deformation, and gas data show baseline activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
거래량
$62,379종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 88.5% probability of no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the rarity of such events—historically occurring several times per century globally, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data—and the absence of precursors at monitored volcanoes. USGS Volcano Hazards Program updates through mid-April 2026 report 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, all low-intensity (VEI ≤4), with no signs of massive magma accumulation, rapid caldera inflation, or high seismicity signaling a Plinian-scale event like Mount Pinatubo's 1991 VEI 6 blast. Axial Seamount's anticipated mid-2026 submarine eruption is expected to be effusive and low-VEI. Weekly GVP bulletins and USGS alerts will track any escalation, but current seismic, deformation, and gas data show baseline activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
거래량
$62,379종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 88.5% probability of no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the rarity of such events—historically occurring several times per century globally, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data—and the absence of precursors at monitored volcanoes. USGS Volcano Hazards Program updates through mid-April 2026 report 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide this year, all low-intensity (VEI ≤4), with no signs of massive magma accumulation, rapid caldera inflation, or high seismicity signaling a Plinian-scale event like Mount Pinatubo's 1991 VEI 6 blast. Axial Seamount's anticipated mid-2026 submarine eruption is expected to be effusive and low-VEI. Weekly GVP bulletins and USGS alerts will track any escalation, but current seismic, deformation, and gas data show baseline activity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문