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미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?

3월 31일까지 공격 없음 39%

3월 이전 (동부 시간 기준) 17%

3월 1일 3.7%

3월 6일 3.4%

Polymarket

$6,446,365 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
볼륨
$6,446,365
종료일
Mar 31, 2026
생성일
Feb 9, 2026, 11:52 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

외부 링크를 조심하십시오.

Frequently Asked Questions

"미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3월 31일까지 공격 없음" at 39%, followed by "3월 이전 (동부 시간 기준)" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?" has generated $6.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?" is "3월 31일까지 공격 없음" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3월 이전 (동부 시간 기준)" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?

3월 31일까지 공격 없음 39%

3월 이전 (동부 시간 기준) 17%

3월 1일 3.7%

3월 6일 3.4%

Polymarket

$6,446,365 Vol.

3월 이전 (동부 시간 기준)

$231,785 Vol.

17%

3월 1일

$297,733 Vol.

4%

3월 2일

$264,263 Vol.

2%

3월 3일

$252,366 Vol.

2%

3월 4일

$256,758 Vol.

2%

3월 5일

$242,029 Vol.

2%

3월 6일

$196,572 Vol.

3%

3월 7일

$195,287 Vol.

3%

3월 8일

$215,760 Vol.

2%

3월 9일

$205,228 Vol.

1%

3월 10일

$214,563 Vol.

1%

3월 11일

$187,385 Vol.

1%

3월 12일

$211,611 Vol.

1%

3월 13일

$151,219 Vol.

2%

3월 14일

$162,692 Vol.

3%

3월 15일

$189,535 Vol.

1%

3월 16일

$178,731 Vol.

1%

3월 17일

$167,108 Vol.

1%

3월 18일

$165,463 Vol.

1%

3월 19일

$178,826 Vol.

1%

3월 20일

$163,612 Vol.

2%

3월 21일

$149,049 Vol.

2%

3월 22일

$197,507 Vol.

1%

3월 23일

$167,324 Vol.

1%

3월 24일

$193,732 Vol.

1%

3월 25일

$172,685 Vol.

1%

3월 26일

$186,908 Vol.

1%

3월 27일

$122,841 Vol.

2%

3월 28일

$131,155 Vol.

1%

3월 29일

$175,427 Vol.

1%

3월 30일

$187,351 Vol.

1%

3월 31일

$247,553 Vol.

1%

3월 31일까지 공격 없음

$186,307 Vol.

39%

외부 링크를 조심하십시오.

Frequently Asked Questions

"미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3월 31일까지 공격 없음" at 39%, followed by "3월 이전 (동부 시간 기준)" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?" has generated $6.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?" is "3월 31일까지 공격 없음" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3월 이전 (동부 시간 기준)" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "미국, 이란에 다음 공격…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.