US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
$8,892,162 Vol.
Jan 12, 2026
January 31
$6,130,340 Vol.
2%
January 31
$6,130,340 Vol.
2%
February 15
$496,914 Vol.
39%
February 15
$496,914 Vol.
39%
February 28
$254,810 Vol.
51%
February 28
$254,810 Vol.
51%
March 31
$108,334 Vol.
59%
March 31
$108,334 Vol.
59%
December 31
$58,771 Vol.
78%
December 31
$58,771 Vol.
78%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 8, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$8,892,162End Date
Feb 15, 2026Created At
Jan 8, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
$8,892,162 Vol.
January 31
$6,130,340 Vol.
2%
February 15
$496,914 Vol.
39%
February 28
$254,810 Vol.
51%
March 31
$108,334 Vol.
59%
December 31
$58,771 Vol.
78%
About
Volume
$8,892,162End Date
Feb 15, 2026Created At
Jan 8, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
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