Next leader out of power before 2027?
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Schoof - Netherlands PM 100.0%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP <1%
Albanese - Australia PM <1%
Starmer - UK PM <1%
$11,059,224 Vol.
$11,059,224 Vol.
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
No
Albanese - Australia PM
No
Starmer - UK PM
No
Lecornu - France PM
No
Abbas - President of Palestine
No
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
No
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
No
al-Sharaa - Syria President
No
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
No
Netanyahu - Israel PM
No
Trump - USA President
No
Sánchez - Spanish PM
No
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
No
Orbán - Hungary PM
No
Macron - France President
No
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
No
Putin - Russia President
No
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
No
Petro - Colombia President
No
None before 2027
No
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
No
Newsom - California Governor
No
Milei - Argentina President
No
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
No
Takaichi - Japan PM
No
Schoof - Netherlands PM
Yes
Merz - German Chancellor
No
Schoof - Netherlands PM 100.0%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP <1%
Albanese - Australia PM <1%
Starmer - UK PM <1%
$11,059,224 Vol.
$11,059,224 Vol.
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
No
Albanese - Australia PM
No
Starmer - UK PM
No
Lecornu - France PM
No
Abbas - President of Palestine
No
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
No
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
No
al-Sharaa - Syria President
No
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
No
Netanyahu - Israel PM
No
Trump - USA President
No
Sánchez - Spanish PM
No
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
No
Orbán - Hungary PM
No
Macron - France President
No
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
No
Putin - Russia President
No
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
No
Petro - Colombia President
No
None before 2027
No
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
No
Newsom - California Governor
No
Milei - Argentina President
No
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
No
Takaichi - Japan PM
No
Schoof - Netherlands PM
Yes
Merz - German Chancellor
No
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No

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