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Next leader out of power before 2027?

$105,193 Vol.

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 52%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 20%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 15%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.6%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,193
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 8:12 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.

$105,193 Vol.

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 52%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 20%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 15%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.6%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$4,751 Vol.

52%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

$5,091 Vol.

20%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$12,102 Vol.

15%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$3,936 Vol.

3%

Albanese - Australia PM

$4,352 Vol.

2%

Trump - USA President

$3,733 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$4,098 Vol.

1%

Orbán - Hungary PM

$4,365 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$3,077 Vol.

1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$3,840 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$5,497 Vol.

1%

Petro - Colombia President

$4,239 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$3,221 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$3,590 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$3,371 Vol.

1%

Starmer - UK PM

$3,837 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$3,239 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$2,687 Vol.

1%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$3,439 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$2,630 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$3,406 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$3,245 Vol.

<1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$3,337 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$3,113 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$2,661 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$2,265 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$2,073 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$105,193
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 8:12 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.