Next leader out of power before 2027?
Schoof - Netherlands PM 78%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 12%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President 2.8%
Takaichi - Japan PM 1.3%
$3,597,378 Vol.
$3,597,378 Vol.
Schoof - Netherlands PM
$159,226 Vol.
78%
Schoof - Netherlands PM
$159,226 Vol.
78%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$154,634 Vol.
12%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$154,634 Vol.
12%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$125,127 Vol.
3%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$125,127 Vol.
3%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$135,185 Vol.
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$135,185 Vol.
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$160,675 Vol.
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$160,675 Vol.
1%
Lecornu - France PM
$124,514 Vol.
1%
Lecornu - France PM
$124,514 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$120,781 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$120,781 Vol.
1%
None before 2027
$139,002 Vol.
1%
None before 2027
$139,002 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$121,371 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$121,371 Vol.
1%
Petro - Colombia President
$128,839 Vol.
1%
Petro - Colombia President
$128,839 Vol.
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$184,596 Vol.
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$184,596 Vol.
1%
Orbán - Hungary PM
$122,899 Vol.
1%
Orbán - Hungary PM
$122,899 Vol.
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$103,824 Vol.
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$103,824 Vol.
1%
Starmer - UK PM
$111,141 Vol.
<1%
Starmer - UK PM
$111,141 Vol.
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$114,166 Vol.
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$114,166 Vol.
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$137,566 Vol.
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$137,566 Vol.
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$144,961 Vol.
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$144,961 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$119,418 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$119,418 Vol.
<1%
Trump - USA President
$175,123 Vol.
<1%
Trump - USA President
$175,123 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$104,441 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$104,441 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$123,394 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$123,394 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$157,504 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$157,504 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$136,461 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$136,461 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$124,262 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$124,262 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$141,510 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$141,510 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$132,010 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$132,010 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$94,747 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$94,747 Vol.
<1%
Rules
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Next leader out of power before 2027?
Schoof - Netherlands PM 78%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 12%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President 2.8%
Takaichi - Japan PM 1.3%
$3,597,378 Vol.
$3,597,378 Vol.
Schoof - Netherlands PM
78%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
12%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
3%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
Putin - Russia President
1%
None before 2027
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
Petro - Colombia President
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
1%
Orbán - Hungary PM
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Starmer - UK PM
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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