Tim Cook’s planned September 2026 transition from Apple CEO to executive chairman, with hardware lead John Ternus stepping in, anchors current trader consensus on this market. Low implied probabilities for other names—around 5-8% for Sam Altman at OpenAI, Sundar Pichai at Google, Andy Jassy at Amazon, and Brian Armstrong at Coinbase—reflect limited official signals of imminent change despite widespread 2026 executive turnover. OpenAI has seen more than a dozen senior departures tied to reorganization and safety concerns, while AI labs face internal debates over model pace and alignment. Traders watch for earnings calls, regulatory updates, or board actions that could shift leadership stability before year-end 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$714,547 Vol.

Sundar Pichai - Google
7%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
6%

Andy Jassy - Amazon
5%

Sam Altman - OpenAI
5%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
4%
$714,547 Vol.

Sundar Pichai - Google
7%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
6%

Andy Jassy - Amazon
5%

Sam Altman - OpenAI
5%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
4%
An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 18, 2025, 10:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tim Cook’s planned September 2026 transition from Apple CEO to executive chairman, with hardware lead John Ternus stepping in, anchors current trader consensus on this market. Low implied probabilities for other names—around 5-8% for Sam Altman at OpenAI, Sundar Pichai at Google, Andy Jassy at Amazon, and Brian Armstrong at Coinbase—reflect limited official signals of imminent change despite widespread 2026 executive turnover. OpenAI has seen more than a dozen senior departures tied to reorganization and safety concerns, while AI labs face internal debates over model pace and alignment. Traders watch for earnings calls, regulatory updates, or board actions that could shift leadership stability before year-end 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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