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Tech·Big Tech

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11% chance
Polymarket
NEW
11% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Tesla traders overwhelmingly back Elon Musk remaining CEO through 2027, with "No" at an implied 89.5% probability, driven by his 16-year tenure and repeated public commitments to the role amid no credible departure signals. Recent catalysts include Musk's post-election clarification that his advisory Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) position with President Trump is part-time and won't displace his Tesla duties, alongside strong shareholder approval of his $56 billion compensation package in June 2024. Tesla's aggressive roadmap—delayed robotaxi unveil on October 10, upcoming Full Self-Driving (FSD) advancements, and Optimus humanoid robot demos—relies heavily on Musk's vision, reinforcing trader consensus despite political distractions. Key watchpoints: Q4 earnings in January 2025 and regulatory progress on autonomous vehicles.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 4:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Tesla traders overwhelmingly back Elon Musk remaining CEO through 2027, with "No" at an implied 89.5% probability, driven by his 16-year tenure and repeated public commitments to the role amid no credible departure signals. Recent catalysts include Musk's post-election clarification that his advisory Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) position with President Trump is part-time and won't displace his Tesla duties, alongside strong shareholder approval of his $56 billion compensation package in June 2024. Tesla's aggressive roadmap—delayed robotaxi unveil on October 10, upcoming Full Self-Driving (FSD) advancements, and Optimus humanoid robot demos—relies heavily on Musk's vision, reinforcing trader consensus despite political distractions. Key watchpoints: Q4 earnings in January 2025 and regulatory progress on autonomous vehicles.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 4:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 12, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.