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Elections·Primaries

TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

icon for TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

Jon Bonck 94.2%

Barrett McNabb 1.0%

Craig Goralski <1%

Carmen Montiel <1%

Polymarket

$38,374 Vol.

Jon Bonck 94.2%

Barrett McNabb 1.0%

Craig Goralski <1%

Carmen Montiel <1%

Polymarket

$38,374 Vol.

Jon Bonck

$17,822 Vol.

94%

Barrett McNabb

$1,678 Vol.

1%

Craig Goralski

$1,650 Vol.

1%

Carmen Montiel

$1,573 Vol.

1%

Shelly deZevallos

$3,157 Vol.

1%

Jeff Yuna

$2,547 Vol.

<1%

Jennifer Sundt

$2,426 Vol.

<1%

Larry Rubin

$2,245 Vol.

<1%

Avery Ayers

$2,460 Vol.

<1%

Michael Pratt

$2,815 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's 94% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary reflects his dominant 47% first-place finish in the March 3 crowded field, well ahead of Shelly deZevallos's distant second, propelling him into the May 26 runoff for the open Houston-area seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. Key drivers include President Trump's pre-primary endorsement, Club for Growth support—bolstered by their May internal poll showing Bonck at 47% to deZevallos's 16% among likely voters—and ongoing grassroots momentum via rallies with allies like Rep. Brandon Gill. With early voting starting May 18 in this GOP stronghold, traders see scant path for upset barring low-turnout surprises, major scandals, or deZevallos consolidating establishment backing.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$38,374
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's 94% implied probability in the TX-38 Republican primary reflects his dominant 47% first-place finish in the March 3 crowded field, well ahead of Shelly deZevallos's distant second, propelling him into the May 26 runoff for the open Houston-area seat vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. Key drivers include President Trump's pre-primary endorsement, Club for Growth support—bolstered by their May internal poll showing Bonck at 47% to deZevallos's 16% among likely voters—and ongoing grassroots momentum via rallies with allies like Rep. Brandon Gill. With early voting starting May 18 in this GOP stronghold, traders see scant path for upset barring low-turnout surprises, major scandals, or deZevallos consolidating establishment backing.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$38,374
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jon Bonck" at 94%, followed by "Barrett McNabb" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $38.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jon Bonck" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Barrett McNabb" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.