TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

Name: TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner
Start: 2026-02-04T22:27:39.642Z
End: 2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Primaries

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

Christian Menefee 80.2%

Al Green 21.8%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Gretchen Brown <1%

NEW

May 26, 2026

Christian Menefee

$0 Vol.

73%

Al Green

$3,249 Vol.

25%

Amanda Edwards

$0 Vol.

<1%

Gretchen Brown

$0 Vol.

<1%

Christian Menefee 80.2%

Al Green 21.8%

Amanda Edwards <1%

Gretchen Brown <1%

NEW

May 26, 2026

Christian Menefee

$0 Vol.

73%

Al Green

$3,249 Vol.

25%

Amanda Edwards

$0 Vol.

<1%

Gretchen Brown

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

In the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff set for May 28, traders heavily favor Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee at 74% implied probability over incumbent Rep. Al Green (24%), driven by Menefee's first-round lead of 36% to Green's 33% on March 5, which propelled him as the momentum frontrunner. Menefee's superior fundraising—over $1 million raised versus Green's under $300,000—and endorsements from Houston-area Democratic leaders, including former Mayor Sylvester Turner, have solidified his edge among progressive and younger voters seeking change from Green's two-decade tenure. Recent polls, such as a mid-April University of Houston survey showing Menefee ahead 52%-38%, reinforce this positioning amid low-key campaigning, while Green's congressional experience on Financial Services sustains his base support. Amanda Edwards and Gretchen Brown trail after weak first-round showings.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 25, 2026, 11:27 PM UTC

Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?

75%

Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

86%

Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?

49%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Christian Menefee" at 73%, followed by "Al Green" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Christian Menefee" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Al Green" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 73¢ for "Christian Menefee" in the "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 73% chance that "Christian Menefee" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 73¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 27¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 26, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

Related

Comments

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner"?

What are the current odds for "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner"?

How will "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" be resolved?

Can I follow "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner"?

What does a price of 73¢ for "Christian Menefee" mean?

When does the "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner" market close?

What are traders saying about "TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner"?

What is Polymarket?