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Politics·Primaries

Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner

Ashley B. Moody 91%

Michaelangelo Hamilton 8%

Jake Lang 1.3%

A.C. Toulme <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Ashley B. Moody 91%

Michaelangelo Hamilton 8%

Jake Lang 1.3%

A.C. Toulme <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Ashley B. Moody

$0 Vol.

91%

Michaelangelo Hamilton

$0 Vol.

8%

Jake Lang

$0 Vol.

1%

A.C. Toulme

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$0
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Ashley Moody's dominant 91% implied probability in the Florida Republican Senate primary reflects her stature as the state's popular Attorney General, bolstered by recent public signals of a potential U.S. Senate bid amid the 2026 cycle. Traders favor her statewide name recognition, strong GOP approval ratings above 60%, robust fundraising, and alignment with Trump-era priorities, vastly outpacing obscure challengers like Michaelangelo Hamilton, Jake Lang, and A.C. Toulme who lack comparable infrastructure. Scenarios challenging this include incumbent Sen. Rick Scott's formal re-election announcement, emergence of a DeSantis-backed contender, damaging polls, or unforeseen scandals, though no major shifts have materialized ahead of early filings.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ashley B. Moody" at 91%, followed by "Michaelangelo Hamilton" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 24, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ashley B. Moody" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michaelangelo Hamilton" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.