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Politics·Primaries

Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner

Ashley B. Moody 94%

Michaelangelo Hamilton 4.2%

Jake Lang 2.1%

A.C. Toulme <1%

Polymarket

$12,075 Vol.

Ashley B. Moody 94%

Michaelangelo Hamilton 4.2%

Jake Lang 2.1%

A.C. Toulme <1%

Polymarket

$12,075 Vol.

Ashley B. Moody

$7,734 Vol.

94%

Michaelangelo Hamilton

$2,401 Vol.

4%

Jake Lang

$1,084 Vol.

2%

A.C. Toulme

$856 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Ashley B. Moody's commanding 94% implied probability in the Florida Republican Senate primary stems from her status as incumbent U.S. senator, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in January 2025 following Marco Rubio's resignation, combined with her proven statewide victories as attorney general. Recent Emerson polling from late March shows her leading general election opponents by eight points, bolstering trader confidence amid low-profile challengers Michaelangelo Hamilton, Jake Lang, and A.C. Toulme, who lack comparable fundraising, endorsements, or name recognition. The August 18 primary favors incumbents historically, with no recent catalysts shifting sentiment. Realistic challenges include a late high-profile endorsement for a rival, scandal, or fundraising surge by underdogs, though structural barriers remain high.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$12,075
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Ashley B. Moody's commanding 94% implied probability in the Florida Republican Senate primary stems from her status as incumbent U.S. senator, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in January 2025 following Marco Rubio's resignation, combined with her proven statewide victories as attorney general. Recent Emerson polling from late March shows her leading general election opponents by eight points, bolstering trader confidence amid low-profile challengers Michaelangelo Hamilton, Jake Lang, and A.C. Toulme, who lack comparable fundraising, endorsements, or name recognition. The August 18 primary favors incumbents historically, with no recent catalysts shifting sentiment. Realistic challenges include a late high-profile endorsement for a rival, scandal, or fundraising surge by underdogs, though structural barriers remain high.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$12,075
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ashley B. Moody" at 94%, followed by "Michaelangelo Hamilton" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $12.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ashley B. Moody" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michaelangelo Hamilton" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.