Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shows no signs of abating, with SAF's recent military advances in Khartoum—including recapture of the presidential palace and airport in mid-November—escalating the conflict and dimming ceasefire prospects. These gains follow RSF's earlier dominance in the capital, but mutual ceasefire violations have derailed IGAD-mediated talks in October, while Riyadh-hosted discussions yielded no breakthroughs. The humanitarian crisis worsens amid famine warnings and displacement of millions, as UN Security Council sessions loom without firm diplomatic progress. Traders weigh entrenched territorial disputes and proxy influences from regional powers, rendering near-term de-escalation or peace negotiations improbable absent major external pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$53,613 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31, 2026
5%
June 30, 2026
20%
December 31, 2026
34%
$53,613 Vol.
March 31, 2026
$1,656 Vol.
5%
June 30, 2026
$0 Vol.
20%
December 31, 2026
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shows no signs of abating, with SAF's recent military advances in Khartoum—including recapture of the presidential palace and airport in mid-November—escalating the conflict and dimming ceasefire prospects. These gains follow RSF's earlier dominance in the capital, but mutual ceasefire violations have derailed IGAD-mediated talks in October, while Riyadh-hosted discussions yielded no breakthroughs. The humanitarian crisis worsens amid famine warnings and displacement of millions, as UN Security Council sessions loom without firm diplomatic progress. Traders weigh entrenched territorial disputes and proxy influences from regional powers, rendering near-term de-escalation or peace negotiations improbable absent major external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$53,613End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shows no signs of abating, with SAF's recent military advances in Khartoum—including recapture of the presidential palace and airport in mid-November—escalating the conflict and dimming ceasefire prospects. These gains follow RSF's earlier dominance in the capital, but mutual ceasefire violations have derailed IGAD-mediated talks in October, while Riyadh-hosted discussions yielded no breakthroughs. The humanitarian crisis worsens amid famine warnings and displacement of millions, as UN Security Council sessions loom without firm diplomatic progress. Traders weigh entrenched territorial disputes and proxy influences from regional powers, rendering near-term de-escalation or peace negotiations improbable absent major external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$53,613End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shows no signs of abating, with SAF's recent military advances in Khartoum—including recapture of the presidential palace and airport in mid-November—escalating the conflict and dimming ceasefire prospects. These gains follow RSF's earlier dominance in the capital, but mutual ceasefire violations have derailed IGAD-mediated talks in October, while Riyadh-hosted discussions yielded no breakthroughs. The humanitarian crisis worsens amid famine warnings and displacement of millions, as UN Security Council sessions loom without firm diplomatic progress. Traders weigh entrenched territorial disputes and proxy influences from regional powers, rendering near-term de-escalation or peace negotiations improbable absent major external pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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