Traders price "No" at 93% implied probability for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Khartoum by June 30, driven by the RSF's failure to achieve decisive control despite months of urban combat with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). In the past week, SAF counteroffensives reclaimed positions in Omdurman and Bahri, stalling RSF advances that peaked in May, while RSF holds much of the capital but not key sites like the presidential palace or airport. With days remaining before resolution, entrenched stalemate, mutual airstrikes, and fruitless diplomatic talks via Jeddah and IGAD reinforce trader consensus on insufficient time for RSF victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Traders price "No" at 93% implied probability for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Khartoum by June 30, driven by the RSF's failure to achieve decisive control despite months of urban combat with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). In the past week, SAF counteroffensives reclaimed positions in Omdurman and Bahri, stalling RSF advances that peaked in May, while RSF holds much of the capital but not key sites like the presidential palace or airport. With days remaining before resolution, entrenched stalemate, mutual airstrikes, and fruitless diplomatic talks via Jeddah and IGAD reinforce trader consensus on insufficient time for RSF victory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Traders price "No" at 93% implied probability for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Khartoum by June 30, driven by the RSF's failure to achieve decisive control despite months of urban combat with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). In the past week, SAF counteroffensives reclaimed positions in Omdurman and Bahri, stalling RSF advances that peaked in May, while RSF holds much of the capital but not key sites like the presidential palace or airport. With days remaining before resolution, entrenched stalemate, mutual airstrikes, and fruitless diplomatic talks via Jeddah and IGAD reinforce trader consensus on insufficient time for RSF victory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price "No" at 93% implied probability for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Khartoum by June 30, driven by the RSF's failure to achieve decisive control despite months of urban combat with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). In the past week, SAF counteroffensives reclaimed positions in Omdurman and Bahri, stalling RSF advances that peaked in May, while RSF holds much of the capital but not key sites like the presidential palace or airport. With days remaining before resolution, entrenched stalemate, mutual airstrikes, and fruitless diplomatic talks via Jeddah and IGAD reinforce trader consensus on insufficient time for RSF victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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