Trader consensus reflects the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) firm control of greater Khartoum since recapturing the capital in March 2025, with the government returning from Port Sudan in January 2026 and the Central Bank resuming operations there. Recent RSF gains, such as the March 25 capture of distant Kurmuk in Blue Nile state alongside SPLM-N allies—consolidating Ethiopian border supply lines—have not translated to advances on Khartoum frontlines, where SAF repelled RSF incursions near Karnoi and retook Bara in North Kordofan on March 6. UN sanctions on RSF commanders for El Fasher atrocities, factional strains, and SAF air superiority sustain the stalemate, pricing low odds of RSF seizure by June 30 amid entrenched positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Trader consensus reflects the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) firm control of greater Khartoum since recapturing the capital in March 2025, with the government returning from Port Sudan in January 2026 and the Central Bank resuming operations there. Recent RSF gains, such as the March 25 capture of distant Kurmuk in Blue Nile state alongside SPLM-N allies—consolidating Ethiopian border supply lines—have not translated to advances on Khartoum frontlines, where SAF repelled RSF incursions near Karnoi and retook Bara in North Kordofan on March 6. UN sanctions on RSF commanders for El Fasher atrocities, factional strains, and SAF air superiority sustain the stalemate, pricing low odds of RSF seizure by June 30 amid entrenched positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Trader consensus reflects the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) firm control of greater Khartoum since recapturing the capital in March 2025, with the government returning from Port Sudan in January 2026 and the Central Bank resuming operations there. Recent RSF gains, such as the March 25 capture of distant Kurmuk in Blue Nile state alongside SPLM-N allies—consolidating Ethiopian border supply lines—have not translated to advances on Khartoum frontlines, where SAF repelled RSF incursions near Karnoi and retook Bara in North Kordofan on March 6. UN sanctions on RSF commanders for El Fasher atrocities, factional strains, and SAF air superiority sustain the stalemate, pricing low odds of RSF seizure by June 30 amid entrenched positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) firm control of greater Khartoum since recapturing the capital in March 2025, with the government returning from Port Sudan in January 2026 and the Central Bank resuming operations there. Recent RSF gains, such as the March 25 capture of distant Kurmuk in Blue Nile state alongside SPLM-N allies—consolidating Ethiopian border supply lines—have not translated to advances on Khartoum frontlines, where SAF repelled RSF incursions near Karnoi and retook Bara in North Kordofan on March 6. UN sanctions on RSF commanders for El Fasher atrocities, factional strains, and SAF air superiority sustain the stalemate, pricing low odds of RSF seizure by June 30 amid entrenched positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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