Traders' near-unanimous consensus against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Kadugli by March 31 reflects the city's firm hold by Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) units in South Kordofan, with no verifiable RSF advances reported in the past 30 days. RSF offensives remain concentrated in Darfur and Khartoum remnants, strained by supply line disruptions and SAF reinforcements bolstering Kadugli's defenses amid ongoing airstrikes. With the deadline imminent and just days remaining, logistical barriers and divided rebel focus make a breakthrough improbable. Only a sudden, large-scale RSF surge or unexpected SAF collapse could shift odds, though historical patterns in the Sudan civil war favor stalemates in peripheral strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Traders' near-unanimous consensus against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Kadugli by March 31 reflects the city's firm hold by Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) units in South Kordofan, with no verifiable RSF advances reported in the past 30 days. RSF offensives remain concentrated in Darfur and Khartoum remnants, strained by supply line disruptions and SAF reinforcements bolstering Kadugli's defenses amid ongoing airstrikes. With the deadline imminent and just days remaining, logistical barriers and divided rebel focus make a breakthrough improbable. Only a sudden, large-scale RSF surge or unexpected SAF collapse could shift odds, though historical patterns in the Sudan civil war favor stalemates in peripheral strongholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$1,381End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Traders' near-unanimous consensus against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Kadugli by March 31 reflects the city's firm hold by Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) units in South Kordofan, with no verifiable RSF advances reported in the past 30 days. RSF offensives remain concentrated in Darfur and Khartoum remnants, strained by supply line disruptions and SAF reinforcements bolstering Kadugli's defenses amid ongoing airstrikes. With the deadline imminent and just days remaining, logistical barriers and divided rebel focus make a breakthrough improbable. Only a sudden, large-scale RSF surge or unexpected SAF collapse could shift odds, though historical patterns in the Sudan civil war favor stalemates in peripheral strongholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volume
$1,381End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-unanimous consensus against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capturing Kadugli by March 31 reflects the city's firm hold by Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) units in South Kordofan, with no verifiable RSF advances reported in the past 30 days. RSF offensives remain concentrated in Darfur and Khartoum remnants, strained by supply line disruptions and SAF reinforcements bolstering Kadugli's defenses amid ongoing airstrikes. With the deadline imminent and just days remaining, logistical barriers and divided rebel focus make a breakthrough improbable. Only a sudden, large-scale RSF surge or unexpected SAF collapse could shift odds, though historical patterns in the Sudan civil war favor stalemates in peripheral strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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