In Sudan's civil war, traders overwhelmingly expect the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to fail capturing Dilling in South Kordofan by March 31, pricing "No" at 97.4% implied probability. Heavy clashes peaked March 25-27, with RSF encircling the town but stalling against Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) defenses bolstered by reinforcements and mountainous terrain. No breakthroughs have occurred in the last 48 hours, and with just days remaining, RSF logistical challenges amid broader Darfur focus diminish prospects. A rapid escalation or surprise assault could still shift odds, though SAF's firm hold reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on entrenched frontlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.In Sudan's civil war, traders overwhelmingly expect the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to fail capturing Dilling in South Kordofan by March 31, pricing "No" at 97.4% implied probability. Heavy clashes peaked March 25-27, with RSF encircling the town but stalling against Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) defenses bolstered by reinforcements and mountainous terrain. No breakthroughs have occurred in the last 48 hours, and with just days remaining, RSF logistical challenges amid broader Darfur focus diminish prospects. A rapid escalation or surprise assault could still shift odds, though SAF's firm hold reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on entrenched frontlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.In Sudan's civil war, traders overwhelmingly expect the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to fail capturing Dilling in South Kordofan by March 31, pricing "No" at 97.4% implied probability. Heavy clashes peaked March 25-27, with RSF encircling the town but stalling against Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) defenses bolstered by reinforcements and mountainous terrain. No breakthroughs have occurred in the last 48 hours, and with just days remaining, RSF logistical challenges amid broader Darfur focus diminish prospects. A rapid escalation or surprise assault could still shift odds, though SAF's firm hold reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on entrenched frontlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Dilling (https://maps.app.goo.gl/Y6TG54DDYXMKvFRaA) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "City courthouse" (محكمة مدينة الدلنج: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K5Zd9883b7XS8oEa6) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In Sudan's civil war, traders overwhelmingly expect the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to fail capturing Dilling in South Kordofan by March 31, pricing "No" at 97.4% implied probability. Heavy clashes peaked March 25-27, with RSF encircling the town but stalling against Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) defenses bolstered by reinforcements and mountainous terrain. No breakthroughs have occurred in the last 48 hours, and with just days remaining, RSF logistical challenges amid broader Darfur focus diminish prospects. A rapid escalation or surprise assault could still shift odds, though SAF's firm hold reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on entrenched frontlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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