President José Antonio Kast's conservative administration, inaugurated March 11, 2026, has prioritized security through intensified police and military operations targeting crime and illegal immigration in high-risk neighborhoods, without invoking the severe constitutional measure of estado de sitio, which requires congressional approval for internal disturbances or war. Recent student protests and isolated cacerolazos have been contained via standard law enforcement, avoiding escalation amid trader consensus implying low unrest risk through June 30. Earlier January wildfires prompted lesser estado de emergencia declarations, now resolved. Odds reflect stability under Kast's "emergency government" rhetoric, though sudden spikes in violence or mass unrest could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedState of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
$42,279 Vol.
$42,279 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$42,279 Vol.
$42,279 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President José Antonio Kast's conservative administration, inaugurated March 11, 2026, has prioritized security through intensified police and military operations targeting crime and illegal immigration in high-risk neighborhoods, without invoking the severe constitutional measure of estado de sitio, which requires congressional approval for internal disturbances or war. Recent student protests and isolated cacerolazos have been contained via standard law enforcement, avoiding escalation amid trader consensus implying low unrest risk through June 30. Earlier January wildfires prompted lesser estado de emergencia declarations, now resolved. Odds reflect stability under Kast's "emergency government" rhetoric, though sudden spikes in violence or mass unrest could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$42,279End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President José Antonio Kast's conservative administration, inaugurated March 11, 2026, has prioritized security through intensified police and military operations targeting crime and illegal immigration in high-risk neighborhoods, without invoking the severe constitutional measure of estado de sitio, which requires congressional approval for internal disturbances or war. Recent student protests and isolated cacerolazos have been contained via standard law enforcement, avoiding escalation amid trader consensus implying low unrest risk through June 30. Earlier January wildfires prompted lesser estado de emergencia declarations, now resolved. Odds reflect stability under Kast's "emergency government" rhetoric, though sudden spikes in violence or mass unrest could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued).
Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count.
If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above.
A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$42,279End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President José Antonio Kast's conservative administration, inaugurated March 11, 2026, has prioritized security through intensified police and military operations targeting crime and illegal immigration in high-risk neighborhoods, without invoking the severe constitutional measure of estado de sitio, which requires congressional approval for internal disturbances or war. Recent student protests and isolated cacerolazos have been contained via standard law enforcement, avoiding escalation amid trader consensus implying low unrest risk through June 30. Earlier January wildfires prompted lesser estado de emergencia declarations, now resolved. Odds reflect stability under Kast's "emergency government" rhetoric, though sudden spikes in violence or mass unrest could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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