Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.8% for any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, anchored by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) deeming unilateral secession unconstitutional without federal consent, alongside severe economic, political, and institutional barriers. No state has introduced viable secession bills in recent legislative sessions—the last Texas referendum proposal died in committee in 2023—with zero notable developments in the past 30 days amid post-2024 election rhetoric remaining confined to social media fringes rather than capitols. Realistic shifts could stem from extraordinary crises like widespread constitutional convention calls or acute federal-state conflicts, though historical base rates for such votes remain near zero.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAny US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
$17,932 Vol.
$17,932 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$17,932 Vol.
$17,932 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.8% for any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, anchored by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) deeming unilateral secession unconstitutional without federal consent, alongside severe economic, political, and institutional barriers. No state has introduced viable secession bills in recent legislative sessions—the last Texas referendum proposal died in committee in 2023—with zero notable developments in the past 30 days amid post-2024 election rhetoric remaining confined to social media fringes rather than capitols. Realistic shifts could stem from extraordinary crises like widespread constitutional convention calls or acute federal-state conflicts, though historical base rates for such votes remain near zero.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$17,932End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.8% for any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, anchored by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) deeming unilateral secession unconstitutional without federal consent, alongside severe economic, political, and institutional barriers. No state has introduced viable secession bills in recent legislative sessions—the last Texas referendum proposal died in committee in 2023—with zero notable developments in the past 30 days amid post-2024 election rhetoric remaining confined to social media fringes rather than capitols. Realistic shifts could stem from extraordinary crises like widespread constitutional convention calls or acute federal-state conflicts, though historical base rates for such votes remain near zero.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$17,932End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.8% for any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, anchored by Supreme Court precedent in Texas v. White (1869) deeming unilateral secession unconstitutional without federal consent, alongside severe economic, political, and institutional barriers. No state has introduced viable secession bills in recent legislative sessions—the last Texas referendum proposal died in committee in 2023—with zero notable developments in the past 30 days amid post-2024 election rhetoric remaining confined to social media fringes rather than capitols. Realistic shifts could stem from extraordinary crises like widespread constitutional convention calls or acute federal-state conflicts, though historical base rates for such votes remain near zero.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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