Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 60.5% for this market, which resolves to "Something" only if none of the specified triggers occur by March 31—including both Rep. James Talarico and Sen. John Cornyn emerging as Texas U.S. Senate primary nominees—reflecting low expectations for Cornyn's victory in the GOP runoff against AG Ken Paxton on May 26. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination on March 3 Super Tuesday, but a fresh University of Houston Hobby School poll released May 5 shows Paxton ahead 48%-45% among likely GOP primary voters (MOE ±2.8%), tightening the race yet favoring Paxton amid his stronger favorability and Trump-aligned base support. No other triggers materialized: Iranian regime endured U.S. strikes and Strait of Hormuz blockade; Federal Reserve held rates steady March 18; President Trump issued no election interference national emergency or Insurrection Act amid "No Kings" protests; SAVE Act fell short of Senate cloture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing
$338,774 Vol.
$338,774 Vol.
Nothing
$338,774 Vol.
$338,774 Vol.
- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdf
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 60.5% for this market, which resolves to "Something" only if none of the specified triggers occur by March 31—including both Rep. James Talarico and Sen. John Cornyn emerging as Texas U.S. Senate primary nominees—reflecting low expectations for Cornyn's victory in the GOP runoff against AG Ken Paxton on May 26. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination on March 3 Super Tuesday, but a fresh University of Houston Hobby School poll released May 5 shows Paxton ahead 48%-45% among likely GOP primary voters (MOE ±2.8%), tightening the race yet favoring Paxton amid his stronger favorability and Trump-aligned base support. No other triggers materialized: Iranian regime endured U.S. strikes and Strait of Hormuz blockade; Federal Reserve held rates steady March 18; President Trump issued no election interference national emergency or Insurrection Act amid "No Kings" protests; SAVE Act fell short of Senate cloture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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