Trader consensus prices United Russia at 95.5% to secure the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its consistent poll leads of 30-41% in March FOM and VCIOM surveys amid President Putin's 80% approval rating. This commanding position stems from United Russia's incumbency with 324 seats from 2021, dominance in single-member constituencies alongside party-list proportional representation, and suppressed opposition evidenced by recent Communist Party arrests through February. The Kremlin's January campaign launch and encouragement of controlled inter-party debates further solidify expectations. Realistic challenges would require seismic shifts like a Ukraine war reversal, economic collapse, or widespread protests breaching institutional controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUnited Russia (ER) 95.4%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.1%
Civic Platform (GP) 1.1%
New People (NL) <1%
$892,513 Vol.
$892,513 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
95%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
Civic Platform (GP)
1%
New People (NL)
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
1%
Rodina
<1%
United Russia (ER) 95.4%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.1%
Civic Platform (GP) 1.1%
New People (NL) <1%
$892,513 Vol.
$892,513 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$469,691 Vol.
95%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$77,067 Vol.
1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$76,298 Vol.
1%
New People (NL)
$34,430 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$128,752 Vol.
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$31,464 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$74,810 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus prices United Russia at 95.5% to secure the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its consistent poll leads of 30-41% in March FOM and VCIOM surveys amid President Putin's 80% approval rating. This commanding position stems from United Russia's incumbency with 324 seats from 2021, dominance in single-member constituencies alongside party-list proportional representation, and suppressed opposition evidenced by recent Communist Party arrests through February. The Kremlin's January campaign launch and encouragement of controlled inter-party debates further solidify expectations. Realistic challenges would require seismic shifts like a Ukraine war reversal, economic collapse, or widespread protests breaching institutional controls.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$892,513End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus prices United Russia at 95.5% to secure the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its consistent poll leads of 30-41% in March FOM and VCIOM surveys amid President Putin's 80% approval rating. This commanding position stems from United Russia's incumbency with 324 seats from 2021, dominance in single-member constituencies alongside party-list proportional representation, and suppressed opposition evidenced by recent Communist Party arrests through February. The Kremlin's January campaign launch and encouragement of controlled inter-party debates further solidify expectations. Realistic challenges would require seismic shifts like a Ukraine war reversal, economic collapse, or widespread protests breaching institutional controls.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$892,513End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices United Russia at 95.5% to secure the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its consistent poll leads of 30-41% in March FOM and VCIOM surveys amid President Putin's 80% approval rating. This commanding position stems from United Russia's incumbency with 324 seats from 2021, dominance in single-member constituencies alongside party-list proportional representation, and suppressed opposition evidenced by recent Communist Party arrests through February. The Kremlin's January campaign launch and encouragement of controlled inter-party debates further solidify expectations. Realistic challenges would require seismic shifts like a Ukraine war reversal, economic collapse, or widespread protests breaching institutional controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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