Recent polling throughout the campaign has shown the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in popular vote intentions, particularly among francophone voters who decide outcomes in most ridings under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. This has translated into strong seat projections for the PQ ahead of the October 5 vote, with models assigning it a commanding probability of securing the most seats. The incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec has seen support erode since 2022, while the Parti libéral du Québec, Parti conservateur du Québec, and Québec solidaire remain fragmented and trail further back. Trader consensus reflects these stable trends and the limited time remaining for shifts. A late surge by any opponent, unusually high turnout differentials, or regional surprises in battleground ridings could still alter the final seat distribution.