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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$486,141,194 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$486,141,194 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,634,802 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$8,844,980 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,477,105 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,549,346 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,164,791 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,661,966 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,612,074 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,707,876 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,415,501 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,529,031 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,967,465 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,016,985 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,471,667 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,756,361 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,870,508 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,441,003 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,218,859 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,878,144 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,393,551 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,552,069 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,227,641 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,850,383 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,669,032 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,030,122 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,487,475 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,265,032 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,801,945 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,036,237 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,694,652 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,478,931 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,707,190 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,611,151 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,677,784 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,331,303 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,414,749 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,700,983 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.6% as the Republican heir apparent following President Trump's 2024 victory and constitutional term limits barring a third run, bolstered by his incumbency visibility and base appeal. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails narrowly at 16.3%, gaining from a recent POLITICO poll showing him dominating the Democratic primary in California over Kamala Harris and a fresh survey of party insiders deeming him best positioned against the Trump administration. Marco Rubio sits at 10.2%, buoyed by his Secretary of State role amid foreign policy tests like the January Venezuela strike. This tight field reflects early-stage fluidity, with 2026 midterms, primary polling shifts, and administration track record poised to create separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$486,141,194
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 17.6% as the Republican heir apparent following President Trump's 2024 victory and constitutional term limits barring a third run, bolstered by his incumbency visibility and base appeal. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails narrowly at 16.3%, gaining from a recent POLITICO poll showing him dominating the Democratic primary in California over Kamala Harris and a fresh survey of party insiders deeming him best positioned against the Trump administration. Marco Rubio sits at 10.2%, buoyed by his Secretary of State role amid foreign policy tests like the January Venezuela strike. This tight field reflects early-stage fluidity, with 2026 midterms, primary polling shifts, and administration track record poised to create separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$486,141,194
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $486.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.