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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.5%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$486,301,921 Vol.

JD Vance 17.5%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$486,301,921 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,640,290 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$8,909,222 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,477,285 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,558,708 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,164,918 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,662,600 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,612,483 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,708,572 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,415,843 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,529,463 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,967,589 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,016,985 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,471,667 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,774,837 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,870,508 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,441,214 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,219,477 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,880,026 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,393,849 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,552,228 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,851,806 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,227,641 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,671,560 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,056,241 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,487,666 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,265,243 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,807,807 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,037,129 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,695,875 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,478,989 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,707,491 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,615,001 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,681,253 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,332,847 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,415,378 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,702,330 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance commands a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election after securing 53% in the recent CPAC straw poll, cementing his status as the Republican frontrunner and heir apparent with robust conservative backing. California Governor Gavin Newsom remains close behind, strengthened by double-digit leads over Kamala Harris in early California Democratic primary polls that signal his party dominance. Marco Rubio's surge in New Hampshire polling and betting markets heightens GOP competition. This tight pre-primary field reflects an open contest shaped by incumbency advantages and base enthusiasm; 2026 midterms, national polls, fundraising momentum, and endorsements from figures like Donald Trump could widen gaps among top contenders.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$486,301,921
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance commands a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election after securing 53% in the recent CPAC straw poll, cementing his status as the Republican frontrunner and heir apparent with robust conservative backing. California Governor Gavin Newsom remains close behind, strengthened by double-digit leads over Kamala Harris in early California Democratic primary polls that signal his party dominance. Marco Rubio's surge in New Hampshire polling and betting markets heightens GOP competition. This tight pre-primary field reflects an open contest shaped by incumbency advantages and base enthusiasm; 2026 midterms, national polls, fundraising momentum, and endorsements from figures like Donald Trump could widen gaps among top contenders.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$486,301,921
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $486.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.