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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.2%

Marco Rubio 10.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3%

Polymarket

$466,928,835 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.2%

Marco Rubio 10.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.3%

Polymarket

$466,928,835 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,058,692 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,651,037 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,236,654 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,327,734 Vol.

5%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,890,090 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,145,679 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,418,884 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,293,070 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,371,815 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,432,668 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,183,633 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,737,132 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,542,082 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,701,758 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$14,873,753 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,939,571 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,010,264 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,610,076 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,463,543 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,270,538 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,158,697 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,487,850 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,311,134 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,844,747 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,433,044 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,233,848 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,050,494 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,288,310 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,647,984 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,072,083 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,160,770 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,829,440 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,767,144 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,680,205 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,199,160 Vol.

<1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,609,686 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 18% trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, reflecting his incumbency advantage and strong lead in Republican nominee markets at 37%, though recent reports of his indecision amid Iran negotiations have caused odds to dip to all-time lows from February peaks. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, buoyed by his national anti-Trump positioning and top spot in Democratic nominee odds, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10% gains from donor buzz and foreign policy visibility. The tight contest underscores an open post-Trump GOP field and fragmented Democrats; 2026 midterms, early primary polls, or a Trump endorsement could create separation before primaries begin in 2028.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 18% trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, reflecting his incumbency advantage and strong lead in Republican nominee markets at 37%, though recent reports of his indecision amid Iran negotiations have caused odds to dip to all-time lows from February peaks. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, buoyed by his national anti-Trump positioning and top spot in Democratic nominee odds, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10% gains from donor buzz and foreign policy visibility. The tight contest underscores an open post-Trump GOP field and fragmented Democrats; 2026 midterms, early primary polls, or a Trump endorsement could create separation before primaries begin in 2028.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 18% trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, reflecting his incumbency advantage and strong lead in Republican nominee markets at 37%, though recent reports of his indecision amid Iran negotiations have caused odds to dip to all-time lows from February peaks. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, buoyed by his national anti-Trump positioning and top spot in Democratic nominee odds, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10% gains from donor buzz and foreign policy visibility. The tight contest underscores an open post-Trump GOP field and fragmented Democrats; 2026 midterms, early primary polls, or a Trump endorsement could create separation before primaries begin in 2028.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 18% trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, reflecting his incumbency advantage and strong lead in Republican nominee markets at 37%, though recent reports of his indecision amid Iran negotiations have caused odds to dip to all-time lows from February peaks. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, buoyed by his national anti-Trump positioning and top spot in Democratic nominee odds, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10% gains from donor buzz and foreign policy visibility. The tight contest underscores an open post-Trump GOP field and fragmented Democrats; 2026 midterms, early primary polls, or a Trump endorsement could create separation before primaries begin in 2028.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $466.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.