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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$485,701,753 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$485,701,753 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,631,599 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$8,709,036 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,475,015 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,548,675 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,162,918 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,661,137 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,611,438 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,706,397 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,410,769 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,499,594 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,966,397 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,010,928 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,455,461 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,755,309 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,866,804 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,419,176 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,213,878 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,876,643 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,192,958 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,389,093 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,544,589 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,843,445 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,642,529 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,025,389 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,483,674 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,260,507 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,798,079 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,030,253 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,683,624 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,469,761 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,703,908 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,604,847 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,652,514 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,305,014 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,409,171 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,693,395 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds, reflecting trader consensus on their status as party frontrunners amid high uncertainty this far out. Recent shifts show Newsom rapidly closing the gap—now nearly tied per data from late March—fueled by his lead in California Democratic polls and positioning after 2024 losses, while Vance's advantage stems from topping CPAC straw polls and strong Republican surveys leading by wide margins. Marco Rubio trails as a dark horse, buoyed by his Secretary of State role. The fragmented field across 30+ candidates underscores the race's openness, with 2026 midterms, official announcements, and Trump endorsements poised to create separation in swing states and Electoral College math.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$485,701,753
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds, reflecting trader consensus on their status as party frontrunners amid high uncertainty this far out. Recent shifts show Newsom rapidly closing the gap—now nearly tied per data from late March—fueled by his lead in California Democratic polls and positioning after 2024 losses, while Vance's advantage stems from topping CPAC straw polls and strong Republican surveys leading by wide margins. Marco Rubio trails as a dark horse, buoyed by his Secretary of State role. The fragmented field across 30+ candidates underscores the race's openness, with 2026 midterms, official announcements, and Trump endorsements poised to create separation in swing states and Electoral College math.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$485,701,753
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $485.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.