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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.6%

Polymarket

$466,855,005 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.6%

Polymarket

$466,855,005 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,058,011 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,649,284 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,235,563 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,326,157 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,889,273 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,140,875 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,418,191 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,291,526 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,371,264 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,432,597 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,178,242 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,735,998 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,541,680 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,701,014 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$14,873,348 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,938,666 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,007,631 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,609,193 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,459,317 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,266,062 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,158,284 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,487,633 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,310,163 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,841,868 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,432,141 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,232,755 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,049,765 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,282,085 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,646,159 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,071,105 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,160,017 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,827,798 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,765,722 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,676,507 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,190,871 Vol.

<1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,608,405 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance's implied probability on Polymarket has plunged to 17.6% in recent days amid escalating U.S. tensions with Iran under President Trump, including erratic statements that traders see as tarnishing the GOP brand and Vance's viability as heir apparent. California Governor Gavin Newsom has closed the gap at 17.2%, bolstered by a March 12 California primary poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris and a recent New Hampshire survey tying him for second among Democrats. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 10.5% after a mid-March surge from donor signals and his high-profile geopolitical role, but odds have stabilized. With Trump constitutionally barred from a third term, open primaries fuel a fragmented field; 2026 midterms, potential endorsements, and early campaign launches could create separation in this closely contested trader consensus.

Vice President JD Vance's implied probability on Polymarket has plunged to 17.6% in recent days amid escalating U.S. tensions with Iran under President Trump, including erratic statements that traders see as tarnishing the GOP brand and Vance's viability as heir apparent. California Governor Gavin Newsom has closed the gap at 17.2%, bolstered by a March 12 California primary poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris and a recent New Hampshire survey tying him for second among Democrats. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 10.5% after a mid-March surge from donor signals and his high-profile geopolitical role, but odds have stabilized. With Trump constitutionally barred from a third term, open primaries fuel a fragmented field; 2026 midterms, potential endorsements, and early campaign launches could create separation in this closely contested trader consensus.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance's implied probability on Polymarket has plunged to 17.6% in recent days amid escalating U.S. tensions with Iran under President Trump, including erratic statements that traders see as tarnishing the GOP brand and Vance's viability as heir apparent. California Governor Gavin Newsom has closed the gap at 17.2%, bolstered by a March 12 California primary poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris and a recent New Hampshire survey tying him for second among Democrats. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 10.5% after a mid-March surge from donor signals and his high-profile geopolitical role, but odds have stabilized. With Trump constitutionally barred from a third term, open primaries fuel a fragmented field; 2026 midterms, potential endorsements, and early campaign launches could create separation in this closely contested trader consensus.

Vice President JD Vance's implied probability on Polymarket has plunged to 17.6% in recent days amid escalating U.S. tensions with Iran under President Trump, including erratic statements that traders see as tarnishing the GOP brand and Vance's viability as heir apparent. California Governor Gavin Newsom has closed the gap at 17.2%, bolstered by a March 12 California primary poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris and a recent New Hampshire survey tying him for second among Democrats. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 10.5% after a mid-March surge from donor signals and his high-profile geopolitical role, but odds have stabilized. With Trump constitutionally barred from a third term, open primaries fuel a fragmented field; 2026 midterms, potential endorsements, and early campaign launches could create separation in this closely contested trader consensus.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $466.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.