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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.9%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$471,399,705 Vol.

JD Vance 17.9%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$471,399,705 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,130,617 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,721,861 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,302,351 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,377,269 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,951,778 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,488,003 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,340,964 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,312,654 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,439,217 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,354 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,009,154 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,802,048 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,475,104 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,770 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,576 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,932 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,065,799 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,219,273 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,645,071 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,351,688 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,961,398 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,557,082 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,590 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,020,065 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,639,430 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,293,364 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,405,535 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,759,455 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,158,342 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,119,525 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,914,642 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,283,739 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,032,122 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,917,042 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,030,460 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,510,453 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim 17.9% implied probability edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, reflecting recent U.S.-Iran tensions and President Trump's erratic statements that have eroded GOP frontrunner momentum and driven Vance's odds down from over 20% earlier this month. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.3% share has risen amid Republican megadonor efforts to draft him as an alternative, highlighting internal party jockeying. With primaries still distant and 2026 midterms looming as a key test of incumbency strength, turnout in battleground states, campaign announcements, and Trump's policy outcomes—such as foreign policy escalations or economic performance—could create separation among this fragmented early field.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim 17.9% implied probability edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, reflecting recent U.S.-Iran tensions and President Trump's erratic statements that have eroded GOP frontrunner momentum and driven Vance's odds down from over 20% earlier this month. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.3% share has risen amid Republican megadonor efforts to draft him as an alternative, highlighting internal party jockeying. With primaries still distant and 2026 midterms looming as a key test of incumbency strength, turnout in battleground states, campaign announcements, and Trump's policy outcomes—such as foreign policy escalations or economic performance—could create separation among this fragmented early field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim 17.9% implied probability edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, reflecting recent U.S.-Iran tensions and President Trump's erratic statements that have eroded GOP frontrunner momentum and driven Vance's odds down from over 20% earlier this month. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.3% share has risen amid Republican megadonor efforts to draft him as an alternative, highlighting internal party jockeying. With primaries still distant and 2026 midterms looming as a key test of incumbency strength, turnout in battleground states, campaign announcements, and Trump's policy outcomes—such as foreign policy escalations or economic performance—could create separation among this fragmented early field.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim 17.9% implied probability edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, reflecting recent U.S.-Iran tensions and President Trump's erratic statements that have eroded GOP frontrunner momentum and driven Vance's odds down from over 20% earlier this month. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 10.3% share has risen amid Republican megadonor efforts to draft him as an alternative, highlighting internal party jockeying. With primaries still distant and 2026 midterms looming as a key test of incumbency strength, turnout in battleground states, campaign announcements, and Trump's policy outcomes—such as foreign policy escalations or economic performance—could create separation among this fragmented early field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $471.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.