Trader consensus favors Fuerza Popular (FP) at 38% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's Chamber of Deputies election on April 12, driven by its consistent lead in late-March polls like CPI (20% voting intention, March 21–23) and Ipsos (13.2%, March 21–22), with Datum's March 22 simulation projecting FP at 38 seats ahead of rivals. Juntos por el Perú (JP) and Renovación Popular (RP) trail closely at 25.6% and 25.5%, reflecting their competitive showings (JP 6–7%, RP 3–9% in Senate proxies) in a fragmented field under proportional representation across multi-member districts. High undecided voters (20–25%) and recent polling volatility underscore uncertainty ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPeru Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
Peru Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
FP 38%
JP 30.4%
RP 30%
SP 6.6%
$27,126 Vol.
$27,126 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
FP
38%
PL
<1%
AP
<1%
APP
5%
AvP
<1%
RP
26%
SP
7%
PP
<1%
JP
26%
FP 38%
JP 30.4%
RP 30%
SP 6.6%
$27,126 Vol.
$27,126 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
FP
$3,357 Vol.
38%
PL
$726 Vol.
<1%
AP
$7,264 Vol.
<1%
APP
$2,119 Vol.
5%
AvP
$593 Vol.
<1%
RP
$2,080 Vol.
26%
SP
$2,479 Vol.
7%
PP
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
JP
$7,261 Vol.
26%
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus favors Fuerza Popular (FP) at 38% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's Chamber of Deputies election on April 12, driven by its consistent lead in late-March polls like CPI (20% voting intention, March 21–23) and Ipsos (13.2%, March 21–22), with Datum's March 22 simulation projecting FP at 38 seats ahead of rivals. Juntos por el Perú (JP) and Renovación Popular (RP) trail closely at 25.6% and 25.5%, reflecting their competitive showings (JP 6–7%, RP 3–9% in Senate proxies) in a fragmented field under proportional representation across multi-member districts. High undecided voters (20–25%) and recent polling volatility underscore uncertainty ahead of the vote.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Volume
$27,126End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus favors Fuerza Popular (FP) at 38% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's Chamber of Deputies election on April 12, driven by its consistent lead in late-March polls like CPI (20% voting intention, March 21–23) and Ipsos (13.2%, March 21–22), with Datum's March 22 simulation projecting FP at 38 seats ahead of rivals. Juntos por el Perú (JP) and Renovación Popular (RP) trail closely at 25.6% and 25.5%, reflecting their competitive showings (JP 6–7%, RP 3–9% in Senate proxies) in a fragmented field under proportional representation across multi-member districts. High undecided voters (20–25%) and recent polling volatility underscore uncertainty ahead of the vote.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Volume
$27,126End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Fuerza Popular (FP) at 38% implied probability to secure the most seats in Peru's Chamber of Deputies election on April 12, driven by its consistent lead in late-March polls like CPI (20% voting intention, March 21–23) and Ipsos (13.2%, March 21–22), with Datum's March 22 simulation projecting FP at 38 seats ahead of rivals. Juntos por el Perú (JP) and Renovación Popular (RP) trail closely at 25.6% and 25.5%, reflecting their competitive showings (JP 6–7%, RP 3–9% in Senate proxies) in a fragmented field under proportional representation across multi-member districts. High undecided voters (20–25%) and recent polling volatility underscore uncertainty ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
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