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Elections·Pennsylvania Primary

PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Pennsylvania Primary

PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Bob Brooks 70%

Ryan Crosswell 15%

Lamont McClure 9%

Lewis Shupe 5.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Bob Brooks 70%

Ryan Crosswell 15%

Lamont McClure 9%

Lewis Shupe 5.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Bob Brooks

$0 Vol.

70%

Ryan Crosswell

$0 Vol.

15%

Lamont McClure

$0 Vol.

9%

Lewis Shupe

$1,284 Vol.

5%

Carol Obando-Derstine

$2,793 Vol.

5%

Aiden Gonzalez

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Bob Brooks leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability in the PA-07 Democratic primary due to his recent labor endorsements from the Pennsylvania Working Families Party on March 3, National Nurses United on March 13, and Democrats Work for America on March 21, amplifying his appeal as a retired firefighter and union leader in the blue-collar Lehigh Valley swing district. The ballot finalized March 11 with four main contenders after petitions confirmed, narrowing a once-crowded field of seven. Ryan Crosswell holds second at 14.5% on strong fundraising and credentials as a Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor, while ex-Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure trails at 8.5% amid limited recent momentum ahead of the May 19 primary. Minor candidates like Lewis Shupe and Carol Obando-Derstine linger below 5% despite niche support.

Bob Brooks leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability in the PA-07 Democratic primary due to his recent labor endorsements from the Pennsylvania Working Families Party on March 3, National Nurses United on March 13, and Democrats Work for America on March 21, amplifying his appeal as a retired firefighter and union leader in the blue-collar Lehigh Valley swing district. The ballot finalized March 11 with four main contenders after petitions confirmed, narrowing a once-crowded field of seven. Ryan Crosswell holds second at 14.5% on strong fundraising and credentials as a Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor, while ex-Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure trails at 8.5% amid limited recent momentum ahead of the May 19 primary. Minor candidates like Lewis Shupe and Carol Obando-Derstine linger below 5% despite niche support.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Bob Brooks leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability in the PA-07 Democratic primary due to his recent labor endorsements from the Pennsylvania Working Families Party on March 3, National Nurses United on March 13, and Democrats Work for America on March 21, amplifying his appeal as a retired firefighter and union leader in the blue-collar Lehigh Valley swing district. The ballot finalized March 11 with four main contenders after petitions confirmed, narrowing a once-crowded field of seven. Ryan Crosswell holds second at 14.5% on strong fundraising and credentials as a Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor, while ex-Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure trails at 8.5% amid limited recent momentum ahead of the May 19 primary. Minor candidates like Lewis Shupe and Carol Obando-Derstine linger below 5% despite niche support.

Bob Brooks leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability in the PA-07 Democratic primary due to his recent labor endorsements from the Pennsylvania Working Families Party on March 3, National Nurses United on March 13, and Democrats Work for America on March 21, amplifying his appeal as a retired firefighter and union leader in the blue-collar Lehigh Valley swing district. The ballot finalized March 11 with four main contenders after petitions confirmed, narrowing a once-crowded field of seven. Ryan Crosswell holds second at 14.5% on strong fundraising and credentials as a Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor, while ex-Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure trails at 8.5% amid limited recent momentum ahead of the May 19 primary. Minor candidates like Lewis Shupe and Carol Obando-Derstine linger below 5% despite niche support.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bob Brooks" at 70%, followed by "Ryan Crosswell" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Bob Brooks" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ryan Crosswell" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.