Incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the closely contested OH-09 House race, driven by her fundraising dominance—$1.7 million cash on hand versus top Republicans' under $400,000—and a crowded five-way GOP primary on May 5 that risks producing a weakened nominee. Recent redistricting made the district more Republican-leaning, with Trump carrying it by 11 points in 2024, shifting ratings from Toss-up (Cook Political Report) to Lean Republican, yet Kaptur's history of narrow wins like 48% in 2024 sustains her edge. Anthony Campbell's entry into the Republican field this week further fragments opposition ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedOH-09 House Election Winner
OH-09 House Election Winner
$19,607 Vol.
$19,607 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
57%
Republican Party
41%
$19,607 Vol.
$19,607 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$57 Vol.
57%
Republican Party
$19,550 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the closely contested OH-09 House race, driven by her fundraising dominance—$1.7 million cash on hand versus top Republicans' under $400,000—and a crowded five-way GOP primary on May 5 that risks producing a weakened nominee. Recent redistricting made the district more Republican-leaning, with Trump carrying it by 11 points in 2024, shifting ratings from Toss-up (Cook Political Report) to Lean Republican, yet Kaptur's history of narrow wins like 48% in 2024 sustains her edge. Anthony Campbell's entry into the Republican field this week further fragments opposition ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$19,607End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the closely contested OH-09 House race, driven by her fundraising dominance—$1.7 million cash on hand versus top Republicans' under $400,000—and a crowded five-way GOP primary on May 5 that risks producing a weakened nominee. Recent redistricting made the district more Republican-leaning, with Trump carrying it by 11 points in 2024, shifting ratings from Toss-up (Cook Political Report) to Lean Republican, yet Kaptur's history of narrow wins like 48% in 2024 sustains her edge. Anthony Campbell's entry into the Republican field this week further fragments opposition ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,607End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the closely contested OH-09 House race, driven by her fundraising dominance—$1.7 million cash on hand versus top Republicans' under $400,000—and a crowded five-way GOP primary on May 5 that risks producing a weakened nominee. Recent redistricting made the district more Republican-leaning, with Trump carrying it by 11 points in 2024, shifting ratings from Toss-up (Cook Political Report) to Lean Republican, yet Kaptur's history of narrow wins like 48% in 2024 sustains her edge. Anthony Campbell's entry into the Republican field this week further fragments opposition ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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