New York's 10th Congressional District, encompassing urban Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods like Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope, maintains a commanding Democratic edge in trader consensus at 94.5%, driven by its deep-blue partisan lean and incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman's prior landslide victories in 2022 and 2024. No credible Republican candidates have emerged for the November general election, leaving the GOP at just 3.7%. Recent Democratic primary developments, including late March feuds between Goldman and challenger Brad Lander over dark money spending and competing endorsements from unions and political clubs, intensify the June 23 closed primary contest but pose no threat to the party's general election dominance. Scenarios like a high-profile GOP recruit, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave could shift odds, though structural district demographics make upsets rare.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNY-10 House Election Winner
NY-10 House Election Winner
$13,960 Vol.
$13,960 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$13,960 Vol.
$13,960 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,750 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$10,210 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 10th Congressional District, encompassing urban Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods like Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope, maintains a commanding Democratic edge in trader consensus at 94.5%, driven by its deep-blue partisan lean and incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman's prior landslide victories in 2022 and 2024. No credible Republican candidates have emerged for the November general election, leaving the GOP at just 3.7%. Recent Democratic primary developments, including late March feuds between Goldman and challenger Brad Lander over dark money spending and competing endorsements from unions and political clubs, intensify the June 23 closed primary contest but pose no threat to the party's general election dominance. Scenarios like a high-profile GOP recruit, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave could shift odds, though structural district demographics make upsets rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$13,960End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 10th Congressional District, encompassing urban Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods like Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope, maintains a commanding Democratic edge in trader consensus at 94.5%, driven by its deep-blue partisan lean and incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman's prior landslide victories in 2022 and 2024. No credible Republican candidates have emerged for the November general election, leaving the GOP at just 3.7%. Recent Democratic primary developments, including late March feuds between Goldman and challenger Brad Lander over dark money spending and competing endorsements from unions and political clubs, intensify the June 23 closed primary contest but pose no threat to the party's general election dominance. Scenarios like a high-profile GOP recruit, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave could shift odds, though structural district demographics make upsets rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,960End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 10th Congressional District, encompassing urban Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods like Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope, maintains a commanding Democratic edge in trader consensus at 94.5%, driven by its deep-blue partisan lean and incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman's prior landslide victories in 2022 and 2024. No credible Republican candidates have emerged for the November general election, leaving the GOP at just 3.7%. Recent Democratic primary developments, including late March feuds between Goldman and challenger Brad Lander over dark money spending and competing endorsements from unions and political clubs, intensify the June 23 closed primary contest but pose no threat to the party's general election dominance. Scenarios like a high-profile GOP recruit, nominee scandal, or national midterm wave could shift odds, though structural district demographics make upsets rare.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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