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Elections·Primaries

NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Claire Valdez 65%

Antonio Reynoso 32%

Tiffany Cabán 1.6%

Jennifer Gútierrez 1.3%

Polymarket

$76,430 Vol.

Claire Valdez 65%

Antonio Reynoso 32%

Tiffany Cabán 1.6%

Jennifer Gútierrez 1.3%

Polymarket

$76,430 Vol.

Claire Valdez

$3,941 Vol.

65%

Antonio Reynoso

$3,866 Vol.

32%

Tiffany Cabán

$5,527 Vol.

2%

Jennifer Gútierrez

$22,989 Vol.

1%

Sandy Nurse

$6,799 Vol.

1%

Julie Won

$1,791 Vol.

1%

Kristen Gonzalez

$23,454 Vol.

<1%

Julia Salazar

$4,760 Vol.

<1%

Lincoln Restler

$3,304 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Assemblymember Claire Valdez at 65% implied probability to win the NY-07 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani's February endorsement that flipped a Data for Progress poll, boosting her from trailing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso 24%-28% to leading 42%-29% among likely voters. Valdez's grassroots strength—over 5,800 small-dollar donors averaging $45 in early fundraising—contrasts Reynoso's larger contributions, while recent PAL PAC backing on March 24 reinforces her DSA-aligned insurgent appeal amid retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez's open seat. Reynoso holds 32% on name recognition and prior progressive endorsements, but high undecideds (27% post-endorsement) signal volatility ahead of the contest in this Brooklyn-Queens district.

Trader consensus favors Assemblymember Claire Valdez at 65% implied probability to win the NY-07 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani's February endorsement that flipped a Data for Progress poll, boosting her from trailing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso 24%-28% to leading 42%-29% among likely voters. Valdez's grassroots strength—over 5,800 small-dollar donors averaging $45 in early fundraising—contrasts Reynoso's larger contributions, while recent PAL PAC backing on March 24 reinforces her DSA-aligned insurgent appeal amid retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez's open seat. Reynoso holds 32% on name recognition and prior progressive endorsements, but high undecideds (27% post-endorsement) signal volatility ahead of the contest in this Brooklyn-Queens district.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Assemblymember Claire Valdez at 65% implied probability to win the NY-07 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani's February endorsement that flipped a Data for Progress poll, boosting her from trailing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso 24%-28% to leading 42%-29% among likely voters. Valdez's grassroots strength—over 5,800 small-dollar donors averaging $45 in early fundraising—contrasts Reynoso's larger contributions, while recent PAL PAC backing on March 24 reinforces her DSA-aligned insurgent appeal amid retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez's open seat. Reynoso holds 32% on name recognition and prior progressive endorsements, but high undecideds (27% post-endorsement) signal volatility ahead of the contest in this Brooklyn-Queens district.

Trader consensus favors Assemblymember Claire Valdez at 65% implied probability to win the NY-07 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani's February endorsement that flipped a Data for Progress poll, boosting her from trailing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso 24%-28% to leading 42%-29% among likely voters. Valdez's grassroots strength—over 5,800 small-dollar donors averaging $45 in early fundraising—contrasts Reynoso's larger contributions, while recent PAL PAC backing on March 24 reinforces her DSA-aligned insurgent appeal amid retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez's open seat. Reynoso holds 32% on name recognition and prior progressive endorsements, but high undecideds (27% post-endorsement) signal volatility ahead of the contest in this Brooklyn-Queens district.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Claire Valdez" at 65%, followed by "Antonio Reynoso" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $76.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Claire Valdez" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Antonio Reynoso" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.