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Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Brad Lander 82%

Dan Goldman 19%

Cameron Kasky <1%

Alexa Avilés <1%

Polymarket

$11,859 Vol.

Brad Lander 82%

Dan Goldman 19%

Cameron Kasky <1%

Alexa Avilés <1%

Polymarket

$11,859 Vol.

Brad Lander

$4,932 Vol.

82%

Dan Goldman

$2,431 Vol.

19%

Cameron Kasky

$1,586 Vol.

<1%

Alexa Avilés

$1,602 Vol.

<1%

Yuh-Line Niou

$1,308 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander at 83% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong progressive endorsements—including from Mayor Zohran Mamdani—and a September 2025 Demand Progress poll showing him leading incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman by 19 points among likely voters. The district's left-leaning electorate, demonstrated by Mamdani's dominant 2025 primary and general election margins, bolsters Lander's position despite Goldman's recent pledge of at least $1 million in personal funds (April 23) and backing from local Democratic clubs like Independent Neighborhood Democrats. Both candidates emphasize LGBTQ+ advocacy amid recent debates, while challengers Cameron Kasky, Alexa Avilés, and Yuh-Line Niou remain marginal; new polls or fundraising disclosures could shift dynamics before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,859
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander at 83% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong progressive endorsements—including from Mayor Zohran Mamdani—and a September 2025 Demand Progress poll showing him leading incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman by 19 points among likely voters. The district's left-leaning electorate, demonstrated by Mamdani's dominant 2025 primary and general election margins, bolsters Lander's position despite Goldman's recent pledge of at least $1 million in personal funds (April 23) and backing from local Democratic clubs like Independent Neighborhood Democrats. Both candidates emphasize LGBTQ+ advocacy amid recent debates, while challengers Cameron Kasky, Alexa Avilés, and Yuh-Line Niou remain marginal; new polls or fundraising disclosures could shift dynamics before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,859
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brad Lander" at 82%, followed by "Dan Goldman" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $11.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Brad Lander" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Goldman" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.