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World·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Slovenia

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Slovenia

Robert Golob 65%

Janez Janša 21%

Anže Logar 3.7%

Vladimir Prebilič <1%

Polymarket

$1,610,520 Vol.

Robert Golob 65%

Janez Janša 21%

Anže Logar 3.7%

Vladimir Prebilič <1%

Polymarket

$1,610,520 Vol.

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Robert Golob

$458,864 Vol.

65%

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Janez Janša

$513,427 Vol.

21%

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Anže Logar

$511,936 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Vladimir Prebilič

$126,293 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob's Freedom Movement secured a narrow plurality of 29 seats in Slovenia's 90-member National Assembly following the March 22 parliamentary election under proportional representation, positioning him as the trader-favored frontrunner at 63% implied probability to form the next coalition government. Golob launched exploratory talks with potential partners on March 27, proposing a broad "government of national unity" amid President Nataša Pirc Musar's calls for swift negotiations, while opposition leader Janez Janša's Slovenian Democratic Party trailed closely with a comparable vote share, holding 20.5% odds as a potential alternative coalition anchor. Smaller contenders like Anže Logar of New Slovenia and Vladimir Prebilič lag due to limited seats, with trader consensus hinging on ongoing coalition dynamics and no-confidence risks before a likely mid-April deadline.

Incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob's Freedom Movement secured a narrow plurality of 29 seats in Slovenia's 90-member National Assembly following the March 22 parliamentary election under proportional representation, positioning him as the trader-favored frontrunner at 63% implied probability to form the next coalition government. Golob launched exploratory talks with potential partners on March 27, proposing a broad "government of national unity" amid President Nataša Pirc Musar's calls for swift negotiations, while opposition leader Janez Janša's Slovenian Democratic Party trailed closely with a comparable vote share, holding 20.5% odds as a potential alternative coalition anchor. Smaller contenders like Anže Logar of New Slovenia and Vladimir Prebilič lag due to limited seats, with trader consensus hinging on ongoing coalition dynamics and no-confidence risks before a likely mid-April deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob's Freedom Movement secured a narrow plurality of 29 seats in Slovenia's 90-member National Assembly following the March 22 parliamentary election under proportional representation, positioning him as the trader-favored frontrunner at 63% implied probability to form the next coalition government. Golob launched exploratory talks with potential partners on March 27, proposing a broad "government of national unity" amid President Nataša Pirc Musar's calls for swift negotiations, while opposition leader Janez Janša's Slovenian Democratic Party trailed closely with a comparable vote share, holding 20.5% odds as a potential alternative coalition anchor. Smaller contenders like Anže Logar of New Slovenia and Vladimir Prebilič lag due to limited seats, with trader consensus hinging on ongoing coalition dynamics and no-confidence risks before a likely mid-April deadline.

Incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob's Freedom Movement secured a narrow plurality of 29 seats in Slovenia's 90-member National Assembly following the March 22 parliamentary election under proportional representation, positioning him as the trader-favored frontrunner at 63% implied probability to form the next coalition government. Golob launched exploratory talks with potential partners on March 27, proposing a broad "government of national unity" amid President Nataša Pirc Musar's calls for swift negotiations, while opposition leader Janez Janša's Slovenian Democratic Party trailed closely with a comparable vote share, holding 20.5% odds as a potential alternative coalition anchor. Smaller contenders like Anže Logar of New Slovenia and Vladimir Prebilič lag due to limited seats, with trader consensus hinging on ongoing coalition dynamics and no-confidence risks before a likely mid-April deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

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Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Slovenia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Robert Golob" at 65%, followed by "Janez Janša" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Slovenia" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Slovenia," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Slovenia" is "Robert Golob" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janez Janša" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Slovenia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.