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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Hungary PM 57%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 16%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 5.6%

Starmer - UK PM 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,829,719 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM 57%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 16%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 5.6%

Starmer - UK PM 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,829,719 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM

$22,800 Vol.

57%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$16,468 Vol.

16%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$636,735 Vol.

6%

Starmer - UK PM

$557,639 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$276,910 Vol.

3%

Putin - Russia President

$351,108 Vol.

2%

Petro - Colombia President

$12,934 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$10,313 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$205,773 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$11,361 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$68,230 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$58,400 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$39,702 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$11,479 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$55,445 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$21,508 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$40,366 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$28,433 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$76,335 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$113,406 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$58,914 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$29,045 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$64,605 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$25,075 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$36,736 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the frontrunner at 57% to exit power first before 2027, fueled by recent polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition Tisza—led by Péter Magyar—in the April 12 parliamentary election, with Reuters reporting Tisza's lead widening as of March 25 amid economic discontent, protests in Budapest, and EU fund freezes over democratic concerns. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, as Trump administration demands his ouster precondition bilateral talks, exacerbating blackouts and economic crisis signals. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 5.5% faces coalition strains and low approval despite war efforts to delay snap polls, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's net favorability plunging to -57% in January surveys contributes to his 4.7% share, highlighting vulnerability in scheduled elections and external pressures.

Trader consensus positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the frontrunner at 57% to exit power first before 2027, fueled by recent polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition Tisza—led by Péter Magyar—in the April 12 parliamentary election, with Reuters reporting Tisza's lead widening as of March 25 amid economic discontent, protests in Budapest, and EU fund freezes over democratic concerns. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, as Trump administration demands his ouster precondition bilateral talks, exacerbating blackouts and economic crisis signals. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 5.5% faces coalition strains and low approval despite war efforts to delay snap polls, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's net favorability plunging to -57% in January surveys contributes to his 4.7% share, highlighting vulnerability in scheduled elections and external pressures.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the frontrunner at 57% to exit power first before 2027, fueled by recent polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition Tisza—led by Péter Magyar—in the April 12 parliamentary election, with Reuters reporting Tisza's lead widening as of March 25 amid economic discontent, protests in Budapest, and EU fund freezes over democratic concerns. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, as Trump administration demands his ouster precondition bilateral talks, exacerbating blackouts and economic crisis signals. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 5.5% faces coalition strains and low approval despite war efforts to delay snap polls, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's net favorability plunging to -57% in January surveys contributes to his 4.7% share, highlighting vulnerability in scheduled elections and external pressures.

Trader consensus positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the frontrunner at 57% to exit power first before 2027, fueled by recent polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition Tisza—led by Péter Magyar—in the April 12 parliamentary election, with Reuters reporting Tisza's lead widening as of March 25 amid economic discontent, protests in Budapest, and EU fund freezes over democratic concerns. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, as Trump administration demands his ouster precondition bilateral talks, exacerbating blackouts and economic crisis signals. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu at 5.5% faces coalition strains and low approval despite war efforts to delay snap polls, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's net favorability plunging to -57% in January surveys contributes to his 4.7% share, highlighting vulnerability in scheduled elections and external pressures.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 57%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $2.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.