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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe 28%

Jordan Bardella 20%

Marine Le Pen 9%

David Lisnard 7.5%

Polymarket

$30,116,655 Vol.

Édouard Philippe 28%

Jordan Bardella 20%

Marine Le Pen 9%

David Lisnard 7.5%

Polymarket

$30,116,655 Vol.

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Édouard Philippe

$438,230 Vol.

28%

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Jordan Bardella

$641,855 Vol.

20%

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Marine Le Pen

$330,626 Vol.

9%

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David Lisnard

$748,491 Vol.

8%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$244,450 Vol.

7%

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Dominique de Villepin

$854,368 Vol.

5%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$493,982 Vol.

3%

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François Hollande

$586,038 Vol.

3%

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Sarah Knafo

$1,003,980 Vol.

3%

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Bruno Retailleau

$929,231 Vol.

2%

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Gabriel Attal

$861,940 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$335,793 Vol.

1%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$637,485 Vol.

1%

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Jean Castex

$473,928 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$324,514 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$355,278 Vol.

1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,838,850 Vol.

1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$1,325,423 Vol.

1%

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Clémence Guetté

$1,639,019 Vol.

1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$375,151 Vol.

1%

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François Asselineau

$1,685,290 Vol.

1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$1,557,013 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$286,713 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$412,086 Vol.

1%

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François Bayrou

$1,589,953 Vol.

1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$1,086,273 Vol.

<1%

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Manuel Bompard

$993,372 Vol.

<1%

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Olivier Faure

$860,131 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$1,016,974 Vol.

<1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$334,118 Vol.

<1%

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Fabien Roussel

$1,043,305 Vol.

<1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,248,341 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$748,762 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$976,192 Vol.

<1%

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Mathilde Panot

$1,102,279 Vol.

<1%

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Carole Delga

$738,580 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Édouard Philippe leads trader consensus at 27.5% implied probability to win the 2027 French presidential election, buoyed by recent polls positioning him as the strongest center-right contender against far-right National Rally leader Jordan Bardella in a potential runoff, following his reelection as Le Havre mayor two weeks ago amid March municipal elections that saw RN gains but no sweeping victories. Bardella's 19.5% reflects his first-round polling edge around 35% amid voter shifts rightward, yet fragmented left-wing and center fields—Mélenchon at 6.5%, Glucksmann 3.1%—dilute opposition, keeping the race tight with no clear frontrunner beyond 30%. Key separators include party primaries, candidate declarations by summer, economic pressures, and Macron's lame-duck maneuvers before the April 2027 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$30,116,655
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Édouard Philippe leads trader consensus at 27.5% implied probability to win the 2027 French presidential election, buoyed by recent polls positioning him as the strongest center-right contender against far-right National Rally leader Jordan Bardella in a potential runoff, following his reelection as Le Havre mayor two weeks ago amid March municipal elections that saw RN gains but no sweeping victories. Bardella's 19.5% reflects his first-round polling edge around 35% amid voter shifts rightward, yet fragmented left-wing and center fields—Mélenchon at 6.5%, Glucksmann 3.1%—dilute opposition, keeping the race tight with no clear frontrunner beyond 30%. Key separators include party primaries, candidate declarations by summer, economic pressures, and Macron's lame-duck maneuvers before the April 2027 first round.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$30,116,655
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, followed by "Jordan Bardella" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $30.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.