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Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Lisa Demuth 55%

Kendall Qualls 27%

Mike Lindell 12%

Patrick Knight 1.3%

Polymarket

$299,093 Vol.

Lisa Demuth 55%

Kendall Qualls 27%

Mike Lindell 12%

Patrick Knight 1.3%

Polymarket

$299,093 Vol.

Lisa Demuth

$54,396 Vol.

55%

Kendall Qualls

$44,362 Vol.

27%

Mike Lindell

$86,670 Vol.

12%

Patrick Knight

$10,224 Vol.

1%

Kristin Robbins

$6,944 Vol.

1%

Scott Jensen

$59,078 Vol.

1%

Phil Parrish

$23,193 Vol.

<1%

Chris Madel

$6,914 Vol.

<1%

Jeff Johnson

$2,622 Vol.

<1%

Brad Kohler

$4,690 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Lisa Demuth leads trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, following her victory in the February 2026 precinct caucus straw poll with 32% support, outpacing Kendall Qualls at 25% and Mike Lindell at 17%. As House Speaker, Demuth benefits from strong party establishment backing and organizational momentum in a crowded field, reflected in her consistent edge over Qualls' outsider appeal and prior unsuccessful runs. Lindell's 11.5% stems from niche MAGA enthusiasm amid his December 2025 entry, though limited broader viability caps his standing. Recent Qualls' March running mate announcement sustains his competitiveness, with the state GOP convention looming as a key endorsement battle ahead of the open primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$299,093
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Lisa Demuth leads trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, following her victory in the February 2026 precinct caucus straw poll with 32% support, outpacing Kendall Qualls at 25% and Mike Lindell at 17%. As House Speaker, Demuth benefits from strong party establishment backing and organizational momentum in a crowded field, reflected in her consistent edge over Qualls' outsider appeal and prior unsuccessful runs. Lindell's 11.5% stems from niche MAGA enthusiasm amid his December 2025 entry, though limited broader viability caps his standing. Recent Qualls' March running mate announcement sustains his competitiveness, with the state GOP convention looming as a key endorsement battle ahead of the open primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$299,093
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lisa Demuth" at 55%, followed by "Kendall Qualls" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $299.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Lisa Demuth" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kendall Qualls" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.