US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury continue targeting Iran's military infrastructure, including recent strikes on nuclear facilities in Isfahan that produced massive fireballs and are viewed by analysts as potential endgame signals amid the conflict's fifth week since late February. Pentagon officials describe coming days as "decisive" while noting progress in talks to end the campaign, though Tehran rejected a US 15-point proposal and set its own terms, complicating ceasefire negotiations. President Trump eyes a swift resolution in two to three weeks despite a Strait of Hormuz setback, with Iranian retaliation via missiles persisting; traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks from IRGC remnants and proxy threats ahead of any resolution timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$305,528 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 30
<1%
April 15
20%
April 30
59%
May 31
89%
June 30
89%
$305,528 Vol.
March 30
$25,448 Vol.
<1%
April 15
$26,794 Vol.
20%
April 30
$15,445 Vol.
59%
May 31
$8,800 Vol.
89%
June 30
$6,486 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury continue targeting Iran's military infrastructure, including recent strikes on nuclear facilities in Isfahan that produced massive fireballs and are viewed by analysts as potential endgame signals amid the conflict's fifth week since late February. Pentagon officials describe coming days as "decisive" while noting progress in talks to end the campaign, though Tehran rejected a US 15-point proposal and set its own terms, complicating ceasefire negotiations. President Trump eyes a swift resolution in two to three weeks despite a Strait of Hormuz setback, with Iranian retaliation via missiles persisting; traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks from IRGC remnants and proxy threats ahead of any resolution timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$305,528End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury continue targeting Iran's military infrastructure, including recent strikes on nuclear facilities in Isfahan that produced massive fireballs and are viewed by analysts as potential endgame signals amid the conflict's fifth week since late February. Pentagon officials describe coming days as "decisive" while noting progress in talks to end the campaign, though Tehran rejected a US 15-point proposal and set its own terms, complicating ceasefire negotiations. President Trump eyes a swift resolution in two to three weeks despite a Strait of Hormuz setback, with Iranian retaliation via missiles persisting; traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks from IRGC remnants and proxy threats ahead of any resolution timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$305,528End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury continue targeting Iran's military infrastructure, including recent strikes on nuclear facilities in Isfahan that produced massive fireballs and are viewed by analysts as potential endgame signals amid the conflict's fifth week since late February. Pentagon officials describe coming days as "decisive" while noting progress in talks to end the campaign, though Tehran rejected a US 15-point proposal and set its own terms, complicating ceasefire negotiations. President Trump eyes a swift resolution in two to three weeks despite a Strait of Hormuz setback, with Iranian retaliation via missiles persisting; traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks from IRGC remnants and proxy threats ahead of any resolution timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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