US-Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including morning strikes today on facilities at Hasan Khan Castle, sustaining action a month after the March 1 coordinated offensive that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and degraded Tehran's air defenses, missile launchers, and drone production. Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire plan last week, coupled with ballistic missile barrages on regional targets and persistent Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting global oil flows, have stalled de-escalation efforts despite 90% drops in Iranian launches. President Trump's signals of potential pullback amid ally hesitance contrast with Pentagon moves like 82nd Airborne deployments and Marine warships redirecting to the region, positioning traders to anticipate prolonged operations amid diplomatic uncertainties and possible island seizures to reopen shipping lanes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$302,801 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 30
<1%
April 15
22%
April 30
54%
May 31
87%
June 30
89%
$302,801 Vol.
March 30
$25,448 Vol.
<1%
April 15
$24,615 Vol.
22%
April 30
$15,080 Vol.
54%
May 31
$8,628 Vol.
87%
June 30
$6,358 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including morning strikes today on facilities at Hasan Khan Castle, sustaining action a month after the March 1 coordinated offensive that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and degraded Tehran's air defenses, missile launchers, and drone production. Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire plan last week, coupled with ballistic missile barrages on regional targets and persistent Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting global oil flows, have stalled de-escalation efforts despite 90% drops in Iranian launches. President Trump's signals of potential pullback amid ally hesitance contrast with Pentagon moves like 82nd Airborne deployments and Marine warships redirecting to the region, positioning traders to anticipate prolonged operations amid diplomatic uncertainties and possible island seizures to reopen shipping lanes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$302,801End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including morning strikes today on facilities at Hasan Khan Castle, sustaining action a month after the March 1 coordinated offensive that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and degraded Tehran's air defenses, missile launchers, and drone production. Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire plan last week, coupled with ballistic missile barrages on regional targets and persistent Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting global oil flows, have stalled de-escalation efforts despite 90% drops in Iranian launches. President Trump's signals of potential pullback amid ally hesitance contrast with Pentagon moves like 82nd Airborne deployments and Marine warships redirecting to the region, positioning traders to anticipate prolonged operations amid diplomatic uncertainties and possible island seizures to reopen shipping lanes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$302,801End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including morning strikes today on facilities at Hasan Khan Castle, sustaining action a month after the March 1 coordinated offensive that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and degraded Tehran's air defenses, missile launchers, and drone production. Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire plan last week, coupled with ballistic missile barrages on regional targets and persistent Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting global oil flows, have stalled de-escalation efforts despite 90% drops in Iranian launches. President Trump's signals of potential pullback amid ally hesitance contrast with Pentagon moves like 82nd Airborne deployments and Marine warships redirecting to the region, positioning traders to anticipate prolonged operations amid diplomatic uncertainties and possible island seizures to reopen shipping lanes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions