Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the Indian National Congress (INC) at 68.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for April 9, 2026, reflecting anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by CPI(M) after two consecutive terms since 2016. Recent opinion polls underpin this positioning: PollTracker's February survey projected UDF (INC-led) at 89-96 seats versus LDF's 43-49, while Matrize-IANS in mid-March forecasted a tighter LDF 61-71 against UDF 58-69, highlighting swing seats amid economic distress, governance critiques, and Gulf crisis impacts on remittances. All fronts—UDF, LDF, NDA—finalized candidates last week, with nominations now under scrutiny; triangular contests in 9-12 key constituencies could tip the balance, though BJP's NDA trails far behind.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedKerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
INC 69%
CPI(M) 29%
RSP <1%
CPI <1%
$46,407 Vol.
$46,407 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
INC
69%
CPI(M)
29%
RSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
BSP
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
INC 69%
CPI(M) 29%
RSP <1%
CPI <1%
$46,407 Vol.
$46,407 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
INC
$5,700 Vol.
69%
CPI(M)
$5,137 Vol.
29%
RSP
$2,943 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$3,050 Vol.
<1%
BSP
$2,767 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$3,915 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$3,013 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$3,806 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$13,142 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$2,935 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the Indian National Congress (INC) at 68.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for April 9, 2026, reflecting anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by CPI(M) after two consecutive terms since 2016. Recent opinion polls underpin this positioning: PollTracker's February survey projected UDF (INC-led) at 89-96 seats versus LDF's 43-49, while Matrize-IANS in mid-March forecasted a tighter LDF 61-71 against UDF 58-69, highlighting swing seats amid economic distress, governance critiques, and Gulf crisis impacts on remittances. All fronts—UDF, LDF, NDA—finalized candidates last week, with nominations now under scrutiny; triangular contests in 9-12 key constituencies could tip the balance, though BJP's NDA trails far behind.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$46,407End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the Indian National Congress (INC) at 68.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for April 9, 2026, reflecting anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by CPI(M) after two consecutive terms since 2016. Recent opinion polls underpin this positioning: PollTracker's February survey projected UDF (INC-led) at 89-96 seats versus LDF's 43-49, while Matrize-IANS in mid-March forecasted a tighter LDF 61-71 against UDF 58-69, highlighting swing seats amid economic distress, governance critiques, and Gulf crisis impacts on remittances. All fronts—UDF, LDF, NDA—finalized candidates last week, with nominations now under scrutiny; triangular contests in 9-12 key constituencies could tip the balance, though BJP's NDA trails far behind.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$46,407End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the Indian National Congress (INC) at 68.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for April 9, 2026, reflecting anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by CPI(M) after two consecutive terms since 2016. Recent opinion polls underpin this positioning: PollTracker's February survey projected UDF (INC-led) at 89-96 seats versus LDF's 43-49, while Matrize-IANS in mid-March forecasted a tighter LDF 61-71 against UDF 58-69, highlighting swing seats amid economic distress, governance critiques, and Gulf crisis impacts on remittances. All fronts—UDF, LDF, NDA—finalized candidates last week, with nominations now under scrutiny; triangular contests in 9-12 key constituencies could tip the balance, though BJP's NDA trails far behind.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
82%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 19 and 21 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
43%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?
92%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions