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Politics·Global Elections

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

19–21 43%

16–18 29%

22+ 22%

13–15 20%

Polymarket
NEW

19–21 43%

16–18 29%

22+ 22%

13–15 20%

Polymarket
NEW

<10

$147 Vol.

11%

10–12

$0 Vol.

8%

13–15

$0 Vol.

20%

16–18

$0 Vol.

29%

19–21

$0 Vol.

43%

22+

$0 Vol.

22%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors IUML securing 19–21 seats at 43.5% implied probability in the April 9 Kerala Legislative Assembly election, reflecting the party's strengthened position within the UDF alliance amid a neck-and-neck UDF-LDF contest per recent VoteTracker and IANS-Matrize opinion polls showing vote shares split 36–37% each. IUML's March 17 candidate list for 27 seats—featuring youth infusion, two women nominees, and a generational shift dropping six incumbents—signals renewal, bolstering expectations of gains from its 2021 haul of 15 seats in Muslim-majority strongholds like Malappuram. Anti-incumbency against LDF's decade in power and minor internal UDF dissent temper higher outcomes, while LDF outreach to IUML rebels adds uncertainty ahead of campaigning.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors IUML securing 19–21 seats at 43.5% implied probability in the April 9 Kerala Legislative Assembly election, reflecting the party's strengthened position within the UDF alliance amid a neck-and-neck UDF-LDF contest per recent VoteTracker and IANS-Matrize opinion polls showing vote shares split 36–37% each. IUML's March 17 candidate list for 27 seats—featuring youth infusion, two women nominees, and a generational shift dropping six incumbents—signals renewal, bolstering expectations of gains from its 2021 haul of 15 seats in Muslim-majority strongholds like Malappuram. Anti-incumbency against LDF's decade in power and minor internal UDF dissent temper higher outcomes, while LDF outreach to IUML rebels adds uncertainty ahead of campaigning.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors IUML securing 19–21 seats at 43.5% implied probability in the April 9 Kerala Legislative Assembly election, reflecting the party's strengthened position within the UDF alliance amid a neck-and-neck UDF-LDF contest per recent VoteTracker and IANS-Matrize opinion polls showing vote shares split 36–37% each. IUML's March 17 candidate list for 27 seats—featuring youth infusion, two women nominees, and a generational shift dropping six incumbents—signals renewal, bolstering expectations of gains from its 2021 haul of 15 seats in Muslim-majority strongholds like Malappuram. Anti-incumbency against LDF's decade in power and minor internal UDF dissent temper higher outcomes, while LDF outreach to IUML rebels adds uncertainty ahead of campaigning.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors IUML securing 19–21 seats at 43.5% implied probability in the April 9 Kerala Legislative Assembly election, reflecting the party's strengthened position within the UDF alliance amid a neck-and-neck UDF-LDF contest per recent VoteTracker and IANS-Matrize opinion polls showing vote shares split 36–37% each. IUML's March 17 candidate list for 27 seats—featuring youth infusion, two women nominees, and a generational shift dropping six incumbents—signals renewal, bolstering expectations of gains from its 2021 haul of 15 seats in Muslim-majority strongholds like Malappuram. Anti-incumbency against LDF's decade in power and minor internal UDF dissent temper higher outcomes, while LDF outreach to IUML rebels adds uncertainty ahead of campaigning.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "19–21" at 43%, followed by "16–18" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 23, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" is "19–21" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "16–18" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.