Trader consensus prices an 82.5% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by escalated US-Israeli military strikes on nuclear sites like Natanz and Isfahan in early March 2026, which derailed prior diplomatic progress. Oman-mediated Geneva talks in late February yielded mediator claims of Iranian concessions toward zero enriched uranium stockpiles and IAEA verification, but IAEA reports since February 27 highlight Iran's underground storage of 440kg near-weapons-grade material at 60% purity and denied access, preventing confirmation of any enrichment halt. Ongoing US troop deployments and President Trump's demands for permanent nuclear abandonment amid active conflict underscore deep mistrust, with no resumed negotiations scheduled before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$132,714 Vol.
$132,714 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$132,714 Vol.
$132,714 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 82.5% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by escalated US-Israeli military strikes on nuclear sites like Natanz and Isfahan in early March 2026, which derailed prior diplomatic progress. Oman-mediated Geneva talks in late February yielded mediator claims of Iranian concessions toward zero enriched uranium stockpiles and IAEA verification, but IAEA reports since February 27 highlight Iran's underground storage of 440kg near-weapons-grade material at 60% purity and denied access, preventing confirmation of any enrichment halt. Ongoing US troop deployments and President Trump's demands for permanent nuclear abandonment amid active conflict underscore deep mistrust, with no resumed negotiations scheduled before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volume
$132,714End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 82.5% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by escalated US-Israeli military strikes on nuclear sites like Natanz and Isfahan in early March 2026, which derailed prior diplomatic progress. Oman-mediated Geneva talks in late February yielded mediator claims of Iranian concessions toward zero enriched uranium stockpiles and IAEA verification, but IAEA reports since February 27 highlight Iran's underground storage of 440kg near-weapons-grade material at 60% purity and denied access, preventing confirmation of any enrichment halt. Ongoing US troop deployments and President Trump's demands for permanent nuclear abandonment amid active conflict underscore deep mistrust, with no resumed negotiations scheduled before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$132,714End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 82.5% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by escalated US-Israeli military strikes on nuclear sites like Natanz and Isfahan in early March 2026, which derailed prior diplomatic progress. Oman-mediated Geneva talks in late February yielded mediator claims of Iranian concessions toward zero enriched uranium stockpiles and IAEA verification, but IAEA reports since February 27 highlight Iran's underground storage of 440kg near-weapons-grade material at 60% purity and denied access, preventing confirmation of any enrichment halt. Ongoing US troop deployments and President Trump's demands for permanent nuclear abandonment amid active conflict underscore deep mistrust, with no resumed negotiations scheduled before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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