Incumbent Rep. Mike Bost (R) advanced unopposed through the March 17, 2026, Illinois primary, securing the Republican nomination against Democrat Julie Fortier, who similarly faced no primary challengers. This lack of competition in the R+22 district—23rd most Republican nationally, where Trump won 71% in 2024—has entrenched trader consensus implying 92% odds for a Republican hold. Bost's dominant 74% general election victory last cycle, combined with a fundraising edge ($481,000 cash on hand versus Fortier's $20,000), aligns with Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or a national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIL-12 House Election Winner
IL-12 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,318 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$3,334 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Bost (R) advanced unopposed through the March 17, 2026, Illinois primary, securing the Republican nomination against Democrat Julie Fortier, who similarly faced no primary challengers. This lack of competition in the R+22 district—23rd most Republican nationally, where Trump won 71% in 2024—has entrenched trader consensus implying 92% odds for a Republican hold. Bost's dominant 74% general election victory last cycle, combined with a fundraising edge ($481,000 cash on hand versus Fortier's $20,000), aligns with Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or a national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$8,652End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Bost (R) advanced unopposed through the March 17, 2026, Illinois primary, securing the Republican nomination against Democrat Julie Fortier, who similarly faced no primary challengers. This lack of competition in the R+22 district—23rd most Republican nationally, where Trump won 71% in 2024—has entrenched trader consensus implying 92% odds for a Republican hold. Bost's dominant 74% general election victory last cycle, combined with a fundraising edge ($481,000 cash on hand versus Fortier's $20,000), aligns with Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or a national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,652End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mike Bost (R) advanced unopposed through the March 17, 2026, Illinois primary, securing the Republican nomination against Democrat Julie Fortier, who similarly faced no primary challengers. This lack of competition in the R+22 district—23rd most Republican nationally, where Trump won 71% in 2024—has entrenched trader consensus implying 92% odds for a Republican hold. Bost's dominant 74% general election victory last cycle, combined with a fundraising edge ($481,000 cash on hand versus Fortier's $20,000), aligns with Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or a national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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