Recent opinion polls from late March 2026, including those by Medián, Nézőpont Institute, and Republikon, consistently position Mi Hazánk third in national list vote share at 5-8%, trailing Fidesz-KDNP and Tisza amid their volatile contest for first—where opposition-aligned surveys show Tisza leading by up to 23 points and pro-government ones favor Fidesz by 5-8. This stability stems from Mi Hazánk's firm far-right base and the opposition's fragmentation, with DK, MSZP, Momentum, and others below 3%, failing the 5% proportional threshold in many scenarios. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this polling lock-in eight days before the April 12 vote. Realistic challenges include a sudden left-wing consolidation, MKKP protest surge, or Mi Hazánk scandal, though historical base rates favor continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHungary Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Hungary Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Mi Hazánk 96.5%
MKKP 2.1%
DK <1%
MSZP <1%
$50,639 Vol.
$50,639 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Mi Hazánk
97%
MKKP
2%
DK
1%
MSZP
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Momentum
<1%
TISZA
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
LMP
<1%
Mi Hazánk 96.5%
MKKP 2.1%
DK <1%
MSZP <1%
$50,639 Vol.
$50,639 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Mi Hazánk
$33,571 Vol.
97%
MKKP
$1,537 Vol.
2%
DK
$1,434 Vol.
1%
MSZP
$1,226 Vol.
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP
$1,677 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$1,229 Vol.
<1%
Momentum
$2,759 Vol.
<1%
TISZA
$1,211 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$1,366 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$4,630 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Recent opinion polls from late March 2026, including those by Medián, Nézőpont Institute, and Republikon, consistently position Mi Hazánk third in national list vote share at 5-8%, trailing Fidesz-KDNP and Tisza amid their volatile contest for first—where opposition-aligned surveys show Tisza leading by up to 23 points and pro-government ones favor Fidesz by 5-8. This stability stems from Mi Hazánk's firm far-right base and the opposition's fragmentation, with DK, MSZP, Momentum, and others below 3%, failing the 5% proportional threshold in many scenarios. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this polling lock-in eight days before the April 12 vote. Realistic challenges include a sudden left-wing consolidation, MKKP protest surge, or Mi Hazánk scandal, though historical base rates favor continuity.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
Volume
$50,639End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Recent opinion polls from late March 2026, including those by Medián, Nézőpont Institute, and Republikon, consistently position Mi Hazánk third in national list vote share at 5-8%, trailing Fidesz-KDNP and Tisza amid their volatile contest for first—where opposition-aligned surveys show Tisza leading by up to 23 points and pro-government ones favor Fidesz by 5-8. This stability stems from Mi Hazánk's firm far-right base and the opposition's fragmentation, with DK, MSZP, Momentum, and others below 3%, failing the 5% proportional threshold in many scenarios. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this polling lock-in eight days before the April 12 vote. Realistic challenges include a sudden left-wing consolidation, MKKP protest surge, or Mi Hazánk scandal, though historical base rates favor continuity.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Volume
$50,639End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls from late March 2026, including those by Medián, Nézőpont Institute, and Republikon, consistently position Mi Hazánk third in national list vote share at 5-8%, trailing Fidesz-KDNP and Tisza amid their volatile contest for first—where opposition-aligned surveys show Tisza leading by up to 23 points and pro-government ones favor Fidesz by 5-8. This stability stems from Mi Hazánk's firm far-right base and the opposition's fragmentation, with DK, MSZP, Momentum, and others below 3%, failing the 5% proportional threshold in many scenarios. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this polling lock-in eight days before the April 12 vote. Realistic challenges include a sudden left-wing consolidation, MKKP protest surge, or Mi Hazánk scandal, though historical base rates favor continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
69%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
68%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
80%
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