Amid the US-Israel war on Iran launched February 28, 2026—now on day 29 with intensified airstrikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and IRGC targets as of March 26-28—traders closely split between three countries (42%) and four or more (40%), reflecting uncertainty over proxy front expansions into April. Ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah and routine strikes in Syria anchor the baseline at three, while Yemen's Houthis launched their first direct missile attack on Israel March 28, alongside reports of Iraq militia threats, boost ≥4 odds. Escalation signals like Iranian retaliation or Houthi barrages could push beyond four; de-escalation via diplomacy might cap at two or fewer, though low probabilities signal trader skepticism.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
3 43%
≥4 42%
2 16%
≤1 4.1%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
4%
2
16%
3
43%
≥4
42%
3 43%
≥4 42%
2 16%
≤1 4.1%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$247 Vol.
4%
2
$270 Vol.
16%
3
$316 Vol.
43%
≥4
$506 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran launched February 28, 2026—now on day 29 with intensified airstrikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and IRGC targets as of March 26-28—traders closely split between three countries (42%) and four or more (40%), reflecting uncertainty over proxy front expansions into April. Ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah and routine strikes in Syria anchor the baseline at three, while Yemen's Houthis launched their first direct missile attack on Israel March 28, alongside reports of Iraq militia threats, boost ≥4 odds. Escalation signals like Iranian retaliation or Houthi barrages could push beyond four; de-escalation via diplomacy might cap at two or fewer, though low probabilities signal trader skepticism.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$1,064End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran launched February 28, 2026—now on day 29 with intensified airstrikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and IRGC targets as of March 26-28—traders closely split between three countries (42%) and four or more (40%), reflecting uncertainty over proxy front expansions into April. Ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah and routine strikes in Syria anchor the baseline at three, while Yemen's Houthis launched their first direct missile attack on Israel March 28, alongside reports of Iraq militia threats, boost ≥4 odds. Escalation signals like Iranian retaliation or Houthi barrages could push beyond four; de-escalation via diplomacy might cap at two or fewer, though low probabilities signal trader skepticism.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,064End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the US-Israel war on Iran launched February 28, 2026—now on day 29 with intensified airstrikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and IRGC targets as of March 26-28—traders closely split between three countries (42%) and four or more (40%), reflecting uncertainty over proxy front expansions into April. Ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah and routine strikes in Syria anchor the baseline at three, while Yemen's Houthis launched their first direct missile attack on Israel March 28, alongside reports of Iraq militia threats, boost ≥4 odds. Escalation signals like Iranian retaliation or Houthi barrages could push beyond four; de-escalation via diplomacy might cap at two or fewer, though low probabilities signal trader skepticism.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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