Amid the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran launched February 28, trader consensus prices a tight race between strikes on ≥4 countries (40%) and exactly 3 (37%) in April, reflecting sustained multi-front escalation. Recent drivers include intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and Yazd, ballistic missile sites in Tehran, and Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon as of March 27, alongside presumed Gaza operations. Yemen's Houthis escalated with their first direct ballistic missile attack on Israel—intercepted Saturday—prompting retaliation risks that could push toward ≥4 alongside potential Syria or Iraq militia hits. Ceasefire talks via Trump diplomacy remain uncertain, with Hezbollah barrages and Strait of Hormuz tensions keeping odds competitive; diplomatic breakthroughs could drop below 3, while proxy salvos widen the scope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
≥4 41%
3 37%
2 23%
≤1 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
4%
2
23%
3
37%
≥4
41%
≥4 41%
3 37%
2 23%
≤1 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$114 Vol.
4%
2
$43 Vol.
23%
3
$199 Vol.
37%
≥4
$185 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran launched February 28, trader consensus prices a tight race between strikes on ≥4 countries (40%) and exactly 3 (37%) in April, reflecting sustained multi-front escalation. Recent drivers include intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and Yazd, ballistic missile sites in Tehran, and Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon as of March 27, alongside presumed Gaza operations. Yemen's Houthis escalated with their first direct ballistic missile attack on Israel—intercepted Saturday—prompting retaliation risks that could push toward ≥4 alongside potential Syria or Iraq militia hits. Ceasefire talks via Trump diplomacy remain uncertain, with Hezbollah barrages and Strait of Hormuz tensions keeping odds competitive; diplomatic breakthroughs could drop below 3, while proxy salvos widen the scope.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$494End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran launched February 28, trader consensus prices a tight race between strikes on ≥4 countries (40%) and exactly 3 (37%) in April, reflecting sustained multi-front escalation. Recent drivers include intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and Yazd, ballistic missile sites in Tehran, and Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon as of March 27, alongside presumed Gaza operations. Yemen's Houthis escalated with their first direct ballistic missile attack on Israel—intercepted Saturday—prompting retaliation risks that could push toward ≥4 alongside potential Syria or Iraq militia hits. Ceasefire talks via Trump diplomacy remain uncertain, with Hezbollah barrages and Strait of Hormuz tensions keeping odds competitive; diplomatic breakthroughs could drop below 3, while proxy salvos widen the scope.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$494End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran launched February 28, trader consensus prices a tight race between strikes on ≥4 countries (40%) and exactly 3 (37%) in April, reflecting sustained multi-front escalation. Recent drivers include intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and Yazd, ballistic missile sites in Tehran, and Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon as of March 27, alongside presumed Gaza operations. Yemen's Houthis escalated with their first direct ballistic missile attack on Israel—intercepted Saturday—prompting retaliation risks that could push toward ≥4 alongside potential Syria or Iraq militia hits. Ceasefire talks via Trump diplomacy remain uncertain, with Hezbollah barrages and Strait of Hormuz tensions keeping odds competitive; diplomatic breakthroughs could drop below 3, while proxy salvos widen the scope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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