Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 36.3% and five at 31.8%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria since the US-Israel campaign against Iran began on February 28 amid escalating missile exchanges and proxy attacks. The tight race stems from Yemen's Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28-29, heightening expectations of retaliatory strikes there that could push the total to five, while some traders anticipate de-escalation via ongoing US-led ceasefire negotiations or containment of the conflict. Further separation could arise from verified hits in Yemen, potential Gulf state involvement, or diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end resolution based on distinct sovereign territories targeted.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4 36.2%
5 31.8%
3 13.9%
6 12.6%
$6,295,495 Vol.
$6,295,495 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3
14%
4
36%
5
32%
6
13%
7
2%
8
2%
9
2%
10
2%
11
<1%
12
1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 36.2%
5 31.8%
3 13.9%
6 12.6%
$6,295,495 Vol.
$6,295,495 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3
$1,887,689 Vol.
14%
4
$1,140,033 Vol.
36%
5
$452,535 Vol.
32%
6
$625,900 Vol.
13%
7
$584,608 Vol.
2%
8
$498,927 Vol.
2%
9
$198,553 Vol.
2%
10
$375,323 Vol.
2%
11
$89,502 Vol.
<1%
12
$59,354 Vol.
1%
13
$129,270 Vol.
<1%
14
$94,590 Vol.
<1%
15+
$33,629 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 36.3% and five at 31.8%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria since the US-Israel campaign against Iran began on February 28 amid escalating missile exchanges and proxy attacks. The tight race stems from Yemen's Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28-29, heightening expectations of retaliatory strikes there that could push the total to five, while some traders anticipate de-escalation via ongoing US-led ceasefire negotiations or containment of the conflict. Further separation could arise from verified hits in Yemen, potential Gulf state involvement, or diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end resolution based on distinct sovereign territories targeted.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volume
$6,295,495End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 36.3% and five at 31.8%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria since the US-Israel campaign against Iran began on February 28 amid escalating missile exchanges and proxy attacks. The tight race stems from Yemen's Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28-29, heightening expectations of retaliatory strikes there that could push the total to five, while some traders anticipate de-escalation via ongoing US-led ceasefire negotiations or containment of the conflict. Further separation could arise from verified hits in Yemen, potential Gulf state involvement, or diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end resolution based on distinct sovereign territories targeted.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,295,495End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four countries struck by Israel in 2026 at 36.3% and five at 31.8%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria since the US-Israel campaign against Iran began on February 28 amid escalating missile exchanges and proxy attacks. The tight race stems from Yemen's Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28-29, heightening expectations of retaliatory strikes there that could push the total to five, while some traders anticipate de-escalation via ongoing US-led ceasefire negotiations or containment of the conflict. Further separation could arise from verified hits in Yemen, potential Gulf state involvement, or diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end resolution based on distinct sovereign territories targeted.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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