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Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Daniel Ennis 76%

Janice Boylan 16.2%

Gerry Hutch 4.4%

Gillian Sherratt 1.7%

Polymarket

$683,984 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 76%

Janice Boylan 16.2%

Gerry Hutch 4.4%

Gillian Sherratt 1.7%

Polymarket

$683,984 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$8,121 Vol.

76%

Janice Boylan

$3,821 Vol.

16%

Gerry Hutch

$489,938 Vol.

4%

Gillian Sherratt

$115,887 Vol.

2%

Malachy Steenson

$10,670 Vol.

1%

John Stephens

$40,783 Vol.

1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$2,432 Vol.

<1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$4,851 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$1,929 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$1,800 Vol.

<1%

Ray McAdam

$1,748 Vol.

<1%

Janet Horner

$2,004 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability for the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by the first Vote HQ opinion poll released March 27 showing him leading by 20 points amid positive local canvassing in the north inner city. The vacancy stems from Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe's resignation, in a four-seat constituency where Social Democrats already hold one seat, bolstering Ennis's incumbency advantage on housing and community issues. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 16.2% despite party strength, hampered by family ties to organized crime figures, while Gerry Hutch's 4.3% reflects name recognition but rejection in a February poll by two-thirds of voters. Recent candidate selections, including Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens, have finalized a crowded field, with high Polymarket volume signaling intense trader interest ahead of polling day.

Trader consensus favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability for the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by the first Vote HQ opinion poll released March 27 showing him leading by 20 points amid positive local canvassing in the north inner city. The vacancy stems from Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe's resignation, in a four-seat constituency where Social Democrats already hold one seat, bolstering Ennis's incumbency advantage on housing and community issues. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 16.2% despite party strength, hampered by family ties to organized crime figures, while Gerry Hutch's 4.3% reflects name recognition but rejection in a February poll by two-thirds of voters. Recent candidate selections, including Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens, have finalized a crowded field, with high Polymarket volume signaling intense trader interest ahead of polling day.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability for the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by the first Vote HQ opinion poll released March 27 showing him leading by 20 points amid positive local canvassing in the north inner city. The vacancy stems from Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe's resignation, in a four-seat constituency where Social Democrats already hold one seat, bolstering Ennis's incumbency advantage on housing and community issues. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 16.2% despite party strength, hampered by family ties to organized crime figures, while Gerry Hutch's 4.3% reflects name recognition but rejection in a February poll by two-thirds of voters. Recent candidate selections, including Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens, have finalized a crowded field, with high Polymarket volume signaling intense trader interest ahead of polling day.

Trader consensus favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability for the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by the first Vote HQ opinion poll released March 27 showing him leading by 20 points amid positive local canvassing in the north inner city. The vacancy stems from Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe's resignation, in a four-seat constituency where Social Democrats already hold one seat, bolstering Ennis's incumbency advantage on housing and community issues. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 16.2% despite party strength, hampered by family ties to organized crime figures, while Gerry Hutch's 4.3% reflects name recognition but rejection in a February poll by two-thirds of voters. Recent candidate selections, including Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens, have finalized a crowded field, with high Polymarket volume signaling intense trader interest ahead of polling day.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Ennis" at 76%, followed by "Janice Boylan" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" has generated $684K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is "Daniel Ennis" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janice Boylan" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.