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Politics·Global Elections

Farrer By-Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Farrer By-Election Winner

Michelle Milthorpe 54%

Rebecca Scriven 2.4%

Helen Dalton 1.9%

Polymarket

$120,672 Vol.

Michelle Milthorpe 54%

Rebecca Scriven 2.4%

Helen Dalton 1.9%

Polymarket

$120,672 Vol.

Market icon

Michelle Milthorpe

$20,178 Vol.

54%

Market icon

Rebecca Scriven

$89,563 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Helen Dalton

$10,931 Vol.

2%

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Trader consensus positions independent Michelle Milthorpe as the clear favorite at 54.5% implied probability to win the Farrer by-election on May 9, reflecting her strong second-place primary vote finish against Sussan Ley in the 2025 election and recent momentum from Climate 200 funding—highlighted four days ago via backers linked to pro-climate investors—and endorsements by crossbench MPs Bob Katter and David Pocock. The conservative vote splits between Liberal Raissa Butkowski and Nationals Brad Robertson, weakening majors amid Murray-Darling Basin water buyback disputes central to irrigator concerns. One Nation's David Farley showed early March polling strength but faces preference headwinds, including Family First candidate Rebecca Scriven's recent refusal to prioritize them, leaving her at 2.4%; state MP Helen Dalton ruled out a run in early March, capping her at 1.9%. Nominations close April 13.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$120,672
End Date
May 9, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Trader consensus positions independent Michelle Milthorpe as the clear favorite at 54.5% implied probability to win the Farrer by-election on May 9, reflecting her strong second-place primary vote finish against Sussan Ley in the 2025 election and recent momentum from Climate 200 funding—highlighted four days ago via backers linked to pro-climate investors—and endorsements by crossbench MPs Bob Katter and David Pocock. The conservative vote splits between Liberal Raissa Butkowski and Nationals Brad Robertson, weakening majors amid Murray-Darling Basin water buyback disputes central to irrigator concerns. One Nation's David Farley showed early March polling strength but faces preference headwinds, including Family First candidate Rebecca Scriven's recent refusal to prioritize them, leaving her at 2.4%; state MP Helen Dalton ruled out a run in early March, capping her at 1.9%. Nominations close April 13.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$120,672
End Date
May 9, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Farrer By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michelle Milthorpe" at 55%, followed by "Rebecca Scriven" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Farrer By-Election Winner" has generated $120.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Farrer By-Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Farrer By-Election Winner" is "Michelle Milthorpe" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rebecca Scriven" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Farrer By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.