Skip to main content
icon for Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

icon for Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

Seán Kyne 99.3%

Noel Thomas <1%

Sheila Garrity <1%

Niall Murphy <1%

Polymarket

$242,685 Vol.

Seán Kyne 99.3%

Noel Thomas <1%

Sheila Garrity <1%

Niall Murphy <1%

Polymarket

$242,685 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$61,491 Vol.

<1%

Seán Kyne

$23,896 Vol.

99%

Niall Murphy

$22,154 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$7,406 Vol.

<1%

Orla Nugent

$28,241 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$30,487 Vol.

<1%

Denman Rooke

$15,792 Vol.

<1%

Noel Thomas

$24,312 Vol.

1%

Thomas Welby

$14,197 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$8,051 Vol.

<1%

Mark Lohan

$7,613 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Seán Kyne’s commanding position in the Galway West by-election market reflects traders’ assessment of his established local profile as a former Fine Gael TD for the constituency and the expected flow of transfers under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. The May 22 poll to replace President Catherine Connolly produced a tight first-preference contest, with Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas narrowly ahead, yet subsequent distributions from eliminated Labour, Fianna Fáil and other centre-right candidates have reinforced expectations that Kyne will secure the seat. Market pricing at 98.3% for Kyne captures this consensus on transfer dynamics and historical party performance in the area. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually weak transfers from key eliminated candidates or shifts in remaining vote distributions during later counts.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$242,685
Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Seán Kyne’s commanding position in the Galway West by-election market reflects traders’ assessment of his established local profile as a former Fine Gael TD for the constituency and the expected flow of transfers under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. The May 22 poll to replace President Catherine Connolly produced a tight first-preference contest, with Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas narrowly ahead, yet subsequent distributions from eliminated Labour, Fianna Fáil and other centre-right candidates have reinforced expectations that Kyne will secure the seat. Market pricing at 98.3% for Kyne captures this consensus on transfer dynamics and historical party performance in the area. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually weak transfers from key eliminated candidates or shifts in remaining vote distributions during later counts.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$242,685
Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Galway-West By-Election Winner?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 11 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Seán Kyne" di 99%, diikuti oleh "Noel Thomas" di 1%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 99¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 99% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" telah menghasilkan $242.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 26, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Galway-West By-Election Winner?," jelajahi 11 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" adalah "Seán Kyne" di 99%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 99% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Noel Thomas" di 1%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.