Seán Kyne of Fine Gael holds a strong lead in the Galway West by-election market at 69% because traders anticipate substantial transfers from eliminated centrist and centre-right candidates, including Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane, under Ireland’s PR-STV system. Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads first-preference tallies after the May 22 poll—topping the count at roughly 10,000 votes to Kyne’s 9,647—but his support has translated less effectively in subsequent counts. Labour’s Helen Ogbu and smaller-party candidates trail well behind, with minimal prospects of reaching the quota. Counting resumed on May 24 with Thomas extending a narrow lead, yet analysts highlight Kyne’s structural advantage from later eliminations as the decisive factor shaping current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGalway-West By-Election Winner?
Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Seán Kyne 69.0%
Noel Thomas 27%
Sheila Garrity <1%
Niall Murphy <1%
$231,488 Wol.
$231,488 Wol.
Mar 31, 2027
Sheila Garrity
<1%
Seán Kyne
69%
Niall Murphy
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
<1%
Orla Nugent
<1%
Helen Ogbu
<1%
Denman Rooke
<1%
Noel Thomas
27%
Thomas Welby
<1%
Mike Cubbard
<1%
Mark Lohan
<1%
Seán Kyne 69.0%
Noel Thomas 27%
Sheila Garrity <1%
Niall Murphy <1%
$231,488 Wol.
$231,488 Wol.
Mar 31, 2027
Sheila Garrity
$61,491 Wol.
<1%
Seán Kyne
$15,830 Wol.
69%
Niall Murphy
$22,154 Wol.
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$7,406 Wol.
<1%
Orla Nugent
$28,241 Wol.
<1%
Helen Ogbu
$30,011 Wol.
<1%
Denman Rooke
$15,792 Wol.
<1%
Noel Thomas
$21,071 Wol.
27%
Thomas Welby
$14,197 Wol.
<1%
Mike Cubbard
$8,051 Wol.
<1%
Mark Lohan
$7,613 Wol.
<1%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Seán Kyne of Fine Gael holds a strong lead in the Galway West by-election market at 69% because traders anticipate substantial transfers from eliminated centrist and centre-right candidates, including Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane, under Ireland’s PR-STV system. Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads first-preference tallies after the May 22 poll—topping the count at roughly 10,000 votes to Kyne’s 9,647—but his support has translated less effectively in subsequent counts. Labour’s Helen Ogbu and smaller-party candidates trail well behind, with minimal prospects of reaching the quota. Counting resumed on May 24 with Thomas extending a narrow lead, yet analysts highlight Kyne’s structural advantage from later eliminations as the decisive factor shaping current pricing.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$231,488Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Seán Kyne of Fine Gael holds a strong lead in the Galway West by-election market at 69% because traders anticipate substantial transfers from eliminated centrist and centre-right candidates, including Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane, under Ireland’s PR-STV system. Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads first-preference tallies after the May 22 poll—topping the count at roughly 10,000 votes to Kyne’s 9,647—but his support has translated less effectively in subsequent counts. Labour’s Helen Ogbu and smaller-party candidates trail well behind, with minimal prospects of reaching the quota. Counting resumed on May 24 with Thomas extending a narrow lead, yet analysts highlight Kyne’s structural advantage from later eliminations as the decisive factor shaping current pricing.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Wolumen
$231,488Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Seán Kyne of Fine Gael holds a strong lead in the Galway West by-election market at 69% because traders anticipate substantial transfers from eliminated centrist and centre-right candidates, including Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane, under Ireland’s PR-STV system. Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads first-preference tallies after the May 22 poll—topping the count at roughly 10,000 votes to Kyne’s 9,647—but his support has translated less effectively in subsequent counts. Labour’s Helen Ogbu and smaller-party candidates trail well behind, with minimal prospects of reaching the quota. Counting resumed on May 24 with Thomas extending a narrow lead, yet analysts highlight Kyne’s structural advantage from later eliminations as the decisive factor shaping current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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